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Monday, February 28, 2011

a prediction

i have no idea whether a u.s.-enforced no fly zone will actually materialize. it's quite likely that by the time the international community gets its ducks in order, qadhafi's last stand might already be over.

but if it does happen, or if the u.s. takes part in any other kind of military intervention in libya, i'm quite certain that the phrase "the shores of tripoli" will be used in too many headlines.

the real issue is what is invisible

to clarify my prior post a bit: wasn't trying to say that there has been a news blackout of coverage of the wisconsin demonstrations. from where i sit the problem is more about the content of the coverage, specifically the almost complete lack of reporting about why all those people are camping out at the capitol in madison are there. it's not about how much public employees should get for a pension or how much they should kick in for health insurance. the unions have already agreed to accept the governor's demands on those issues, but governor walker wouldn't agree those savings without also getting his changes to the union's collective bargaining rights.

which is why it is simply inaccurate to present this as a battle over pension or health contributions, or about saving the state money. if that's all it was, there would already be a deal. what governor walker is fighting for is the ability to take away public employees' bargaining rights, the rights that private employees have by law. and some of the governor's proposals, like the requirement that union employees renegotiate their contract every single year, would cost the state more money. the news coverage almost completely ignores the real issue. that's why i think the coverage is poor.

embarrassing

paul krugman notes the lack of attention the u.s. media is taking to the massive demonstrations in wisconsin and by supporters of the wisconsin unions from around the u.s. probably the most embarrassing manifestation of the poor coverage is russia today's english language channel's story about it:


the russian media will seize any opportunity to bash the u.s. but why do we keep giving them good reason?

(via susie)

Friday, February 25, 2011

just because they said it was stupid and wouldn't work, and then it didn't work, doesn't mean it was stupid

the really fascinating thing about the american right today is its stubborn inability to admit it ever made a mistake.

things that the rest of the universe remembers as being blunders of the 2008 presidential campaign, stuff like the selection of sarah palin as running mate or making some random dude the centerpiece of your presidential campaign, are not the stupid decisions that the rest of us all remember so fondly. rather they were brilliant moves. moves that should have won them the presidency if all were right in the world. and they would have gotten away with it too, if it weren't for (pick as many as you want): (a) the liberal media, (b) that slick-talking kenyan, (c) the forces of international socialism, or (d) whatever glenn beck is ranting about this week.

(h.t. atrios)

the soft bigotry of high immigration


Gogol Bordello "Immigraniada" from Isaiah Seret on Vimeo.

immigration is an extremely regional issue, probably to a greater extent than another other major issue in the u.s. it's a real hot button issue for people in the southwest, but doesn't really resonate in a lot of other parts of the country. the occasional publicity stunts aside, i just don't think that most people in this part of the country are all that concerned about illegal immigration.

which possibly means that i'm not in a position to evaluate what motivates the crazy anti-immigrant sentiment that seems so powerful in other parts of the country. as yglesias points out, illegal immigration actually benefits the very people who are pushing so hard on the issue in arizona. and they're willing to charge ahead with their plan even after the state is already suffering economically from a national boycott.

i just can't come up with any reason other than simple bigotry to explain their behavior. maybe i'm wrong. but if so, what am i missing?

حرب أهلية؟

if it continues much longer, at some point people will stop referring to the events in libya as a democratic protest movement and start referring to it as a civil war.

i'm not sure when that will happen (nor am i casting any judgment on the opposition movement). but if the pro-qadhafi faction manages to hold on to control of sections of the country while other areas stay outside its control and the two sides interact mostly by shooting at one another, it definitely will be something quite different than what happened in tunisia and egypt.

Thursday, February 24, 2011

map 'n flag

two attempts to map out who currently controls what in libya.

i've been meaning to note that the opposition has adopted the pre-qadhafi flag of the kingdom of libya as their standard. i guess that means the dullest map in the world is on its way out no matter who ends up on top when the dust finally settles.

(via b&t)

solidarity rally

over lunch i dropped in on the solidarity rally down the street. it was very well attended, much more of a crowd than i expected on a cold dreary day. the local unions (both public and private sector) had a major presence.

it was a nice show of support, but also fairly low-key. the point was just to show solidarity and also, i suppose, to warn governor corbett (our new GOP governor) not to get any ideas. it looked big enough to get some attention and there was a news helicopter hovering over the crowd when i arrived, so maybe it helped.

holy warriors


the crusades is one of those historical events that seems to come up a lot. while through my readings and travels i had picked up bits and pieces about the crusading era, i had never read an overall history the crusades. i tried to rectify that with "holy warriors: a modern history of the crusades" by jonathan phillips.

the thing that attracted me to that particular book was a review i read that mentioned it drew from both european and middle eastern sources. that is true and phillips makes some real attempts to tell the story from both perspectives. it's also clear that the author draws a lot more from european sources than middle eastern ones. phillips is primarily a european historian. despite his best efforts the book ends up painting a more vivid picture of the europeans than the arabs and turks.

still, it does do a remarkable job at making coherent the long series of events that took place over hundreds of years and which are broadly referred to as "the crusades". running in the background of the book is a lingering question of how exactly you would define a crusade. elements of the first crusade--a call by the pope to catholics across different nationalities to fight a religiously sanctioned holy war to recover the lands of the bible from the muslims--broke down over time. after the first crusade, subsequent efforts weren't always in the holy land, weren't always against muslims, and sometimes were even directed against fellow christians. "crusades" were called against heretical factions of catholicism, pagans in the baltics and prussia and against eastern orthodox christians. on several occasions crusaders ended up attacking jews in western europe. the catholic reconquista of muslim spain was subsumed into the concept of crusading, even though it has been going on almost three hundred years prior to the first crusade. the book does a good job at keeping the focus on the evolving phenomenon of a crusade even as the subject matter itself fights against its own definition and constraints.

the best part of the book wasn't the chapters about each crusade and the (often disastrous) fallout, it was the last chapter when phillips outlines the legacy of the crusades on modern western culture. crusader imagery and comparisons have remained powerful. in the west, the comparisons are often positive, implying a noble cause fought against all odds. the rhetoric of crusading was taken up by the british during its imperialist expansion and again during world war one. never mind that crusading was historically a specifically catholic endeavor and britain is an officially protestant country. the idea of the crusade has long been embraced by other christian groups even though the historic crusaders would have probably slaughtered those protestants as heretics. crusade-fever has even infected the imaginations of americans. the temperance movement in the u.s. called its campaign against alcohol a "crusade", and batman is still called "the caped crusader". george w. bush famously referred to the american response after 9/11 as a "crusade" only to take it back after he was told that the word has a very different connotation in other parts of the world.

the resilience and popularity of positive crusader imagery is particularly strange considering that most of the crusades were failures. after the stunning victory in the first crusade, when the west managed to capture jerusalem and establish a latin kingdom in what is now parts of israel, lebanon and syria, the remaining crusades in the middle east were mostly a series of retreats, setbacks and massacres. crusaders sometimes had victories, but whatever gains they made were always eventually lost. the franks held jerusalem for one hundred years, but then lost it to saladin, and only briefly recovered the city despite numerous attempts to repeat the conquest (and that brief reoccupation was due to a land swap deal with the muslim, not a straight conquest). in other words, aside from the first crusade, every other middle eastern crusade failed to achieve its ultimate goal. western europe poured an enormous amount of money and human lives into the crusades and had little to show for it when the phenomenon finally petered out in the 15th century. it's remarkable that the concept of a "crusade" has retained any positive connotations after such a dismal history.

and speaking of positive connotations, it was entertaining to read rick santorum's defense of the crusades after reading phillips' book. i realize he was just kissing up to his own islamophobic branch of american christian fundamentalism, but ricky really should stick with his area of expertise: man-on-dog sex.

not a see-saw

the only reason that the u.s. sides with saudi arabia in its rivalry with iran is because of history. iran hawks note that iran funds terrorists groups, but so does saudi arabia. both are fundamentalist regimes that oppress their people. the only difference is that the u.s. has a long business relationship with the KSA and has had 32 years of conflict with iran.

it's a shame that these two particular regimes have become the poles of influence for the region. or at least that seems to be the prevailing wisdom of political analysts. they all seem to assume that iran and saudi arabia are the two key players and their influence is a kind of zero-sum see-saw. if one's influence grows, it's assumed that the other's must be waning.

i'm not sure if i agree with that assumption. with a new regime in egypt that might not be on board with the saudi's anti-iran party line, egyptian-iranian relations would improve. but that doesn't mean that the democratic revolutions sweeping the region is bolstering the iranian government as that regime is being challenged by its own democratic movement. in fact, the governments of saudi arabia and iran are united in the sense that they are both threatened by the prospect of a trans-national democratic wave. if real democracy comes to the region it would threaten both regimes.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

fox

more of a joke than a news source.

the full list

pick your favorite, though some of them couldn't reasonably be called a transliteration of معمر القذافي.

it is a little odd that moe (ha! just coined another one) is the only newsworthy person with a foreign name for which there is no consensus at all of how it should be spelled in english.

(previously)

the dog that didn't bark

three federal courts have now upheld the affordable care act, two federal courts have struck it down. it's interesting how only the ones ruling against the health reform law get a lot of media attention.

previously, when the score was 2 to 2, i attributed the much greater attention paid to the two anti-ACA decisions to the timing of the decisions and the bias in reporting towards a change in the status quo as opposed to upholding the status quo. the two decisions upholding the ACA came first. while that is news, it's not a big deal for the courts to find an act of congress to be constitutional. so at the time they came out they were not contradicting any other court opinion about the law. but then the two subsequent rulings the other way (with the first of the two striking down only the individual mandate and the second ruling against the entire ACA) could be viewed as bigger news because they were rulings that (assuming they prevailed in the end) would change the status quo and because they came to a different conclusion than the earlier rulings.

but by that logic this fifth ruling should also be really newsworthy because it contradicts the last two rulings against the ACA and because (if this fifth decision is the one that ultimately prevails) it would change the status quo away from the now viewed as more viable unconstitutional argument. and yet, i'm not seeing a big splash. the article i linked to above appears on page A14 of the print edition of the NYT. by comparison, the last two rulings against the ACA both appeared on the front page (and the first two cases upholding the act appeared on pages A15 and A25).

the tally among federal court rulings now stands at 3-2 in favor of obama's health reform act and i bet a substantial portion of the country thinks that courts have only found it to be unconstitutional.

koch head

the citizens of wisconsin are flooding the phone lines of governor scott walker, but he's not taking their calls. he's not even taking the calls of certain wisconsin state senators. but the buffalo beast posed as one specific out-of-stater and got through.

it just goes to show who walker thinks he's working for.

ADDING: jesse berney misses the biggest revelation of them all: that the governor of wisconsin will take david koch's call even when he is avoiding the calls of his own constituents.

ADDING #2: the other interesting thing about the call is how unaware governor walker is of his own double standards. he talks about investigating democratic senators for corruption because he thinks their lodging and meals are being paid by labor unions, but then seems to take up david koch's offer to fly him out to california and "really show you a good time" when this is all over. he talks about how the protesters are being influenced by out of state people as he thinks he is talking to david koch, himself a sponsor of right wing causes who doesn't live in wisconsin.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

austerity

i mentioned before about how taking away collective bargaining rights and making public employees renegotiate their contracts every year won't save the state of wisconsin any money and may, in fact, cost it extra money. similarly, blocking pro-union web sites in the state capitol also won't save any money and could cost the state money when they get hit with the civil rights lawsuit.


genocide

i keep seeing references to the libyan regime committing "genocide." but is it? the UN convention on the prevention of genocide defines it as an attack on or preventing the birth of or forcably transferring the children of "a national, ethnical, racial or religious group." genocide is defined as being an attach against a particular group because the victims belong to that group.

qaddafi is murdering the people protesting against his government. i don't think he's targeting a particular racial, ethnic or religious group. he's targeting the people who threaten his power regardless of their racial, ethnic or religious background. it doesn't, in my mind, fit the definition of genocide.

i think the reason people keep referring to it as "genocide" is because it's really awful and they want to emphasize that this goes beyond mere murder. but murder is really awful too. besides, what is happening in libya could be labeled "mass murder", which is really really awful, beyond run-of-the-mill murder. is it really necessary to go beyond mass murder? if every mass murder is described genocidal it takes away from the special awfulness of real genocide.

not just the son of a murderous despot

saif qaddafi's recent speech got people looking at his doctoral dissertation: "The Role of Civil Society in the Democratization of Global Governance Institutions: From ‘Soft Power’ to Collective Decision-Making?." (pdf)

it turns out that the dissertation is not just ironic, it's also plagiarized. now he might lose his country and his phd, assuming he survives the coming weeks, that is.

Monday, February 21, 2011

#3?


it's really hard to tell what is going on with libya. the country is much more isolated from the world than other arab countries, plus the regime itself is working pretty hard to sever what communication there is with the outside. but when even the guy who qadhafi appointed to represent libya's interests at the UN starts calling moammar a genocidal war criminal, i think that's a pretty strong sign that powerful and connected people don't think that the current regime has much of a future.

no basque for you!

one totally unexpected side-effect of fatherhood is that i am reading a lot more. i know, it's pretty weird. i'm supposed to have less free time now that i got a toddler at home. but since december 16th i've been flying through books much faster than i have for years. basically i attribute it to two things: (1) i no longer meet with my arabic tutor which means that all the time on the train and during lunch that i used to spend translating articles is now reading time, and (2) with noz jr. falling asleep at 8pm, the house gets really quiet so i tend to do quieter things (like read) after he falls asleep.

in any case, that means i'll probably start blogging about books more here. or maybe not. i'm pretty bad at predicting what i will later feel like writing about. several times over the past few weeks i've almost written something about the basque history of the world. but obviously i haven't and now that's 3 books ago and so i think i probably won't. but since i'm so bad at predicting maybe saying i won't means that i might. but that last sentence might just flip it back to i won't again, maybe.

more oil than bone

seif al-islam al-qadhafi throws a bone to the protesters calling for an end to his father's government:
He offered a vague package of reforms in his televised speech, potentially including a new flag, national anthem and confederate structure.
wow! a new national anthem!!!

seriously, is that guy so out of touch he thought a new flag would actually satisfy anyone? (admittedly, libya has the dullest flag in the world). when faced with democratic protests, the president ben ali of tunisia removed censorship of the internet and promised not to run for reelection, mubarak promised elections six months later and that neither he nor his son would run, the king of jordan dismissed his cabinet and appointed a new prime minister, the emir of bahrain promised to expand freedom in the media. none of those things placated the protesters, but they were actual concessions.

nativists

when i saw the above sign over the weekend, it occurred to me that i have been shit upon by a bird exactly three times in my life. each of those times was in a different country and none of those countries was the united states, even though i have spent the vast majority of my life in the u.s.

i think the birds just hate foreigners. and yes, i stood in the danger zone to take this photo and still get away poop-free.

Friday, February 18, 2011

has he still got it?

anti-qadhafi protesters have seized control of a radio station in beghazi, and possibly have taken control of the city itself. benghazi is the second largest city in libya, with a population of about 700,000 people, and it's the principle city of eastern libya. you can listen to the radio station live (in arabic) here.

if the seizure of the city turns out to be true, that's pretty incredible. but with a very different kind of political standoff going on in wisconsin (not to mention a bunch of other protests breaking out all over the middle east), i wonder how thoroughly the u.s. media will cover the libyan thing. on the one hand, the u.s. media is notoriously self-obsessed. foreign news almost always takes a back seat to domestic news. a lot of american news sources have all but abandoned covering foreign news unless its really major.

on the other hand, part of that self-obsession means that what foreign coverage there is tends to focus on certain key points. events that hit those key points get a lot of coverage and events that don't don't. for the middle east (that includes arab north africa) those key points are: israel, terrorism, and people who have been labeled bad guys (there is some overlap among the three. the bad guys tend to be supporters of terrorism and anti-israel).

before saddam, before osama, moammar was briefly one of the top bad guys in the american media. at least he was during the reagan era. if this were 1987 and there were such a serious threat to qadhafi's rule, it would surely be the top story across the u.s. i'm curious whether moammar's still got it. is he still a big enough boogy man to get the u.s. media to pay attention even when there is a domestic showdown provides such an easy distraction?

(via dagger aleph on FB)

a man on a mission

the two most remarkable things about that stuff that is happening in wisconsin are:

(1) the fact that governor walker created the budget shortfall that he is now claiming forces him to resort to these austerity measures. before governor walker came into office earlier this year, wisconsin had a budget surplus. then the governor pushed through tax cuts as well as $140 million in spending on his own pet projects. this isn't an "emergency" that forces him to take emergency measures in a time of serious financial difficulties. this is a problem that the governor himself created and is now using as an excuse to retaliate against his political opponents, the labor unions that campaigned against him in the recent election.

(2) some of governor walker's proposed changes in collective bargaining rights won't save money. in fact, the idea that unions would no longer be allowed to negotiate multi-year contracts (each contract instead would be only one year long) will probably end up costing the state more. the proposal would mean that the state would have to engage in costly and time consuming negotiations every single year, instead of allowing it to enter into multi-year contracts. also the proposal that unions would have to recertify every year would also means costly disruptions in the state's operations as employees are preoccupied with annual election campaigns. of course, both of those proposals will also cost unions more money too. but i think that's the point.

governor walker seems to be completely crazy for him to throw his state into a crisis over this. walker claims that he is trying to save the state from a fiscal crisis, but he brought the fiscal crisis onto the state. a much easier way to resolve it would be to repeal his own initiatives and return the state budget to a surplus. instead, he's proposing actions that may make the state's finances even worse. it's crazy, that is, unless he doesn't actually care about the financial situation of the state and really just wants to bust public unions even if it means destroying gutting the state budget in the process.

UPDATE: add a bit more budget-busting the walker's plan: via atrios, if the governor wins madison will probably lose $45 million in federal matching funds. the city could avoid the loss of funds, but only if it dramatically cut back its services, which would mean a lot of madisonians can't get to work, causing further economic pain to the city.

Thursday, February 17, 2011

upmynoz

recent events have caused me to contemplate the subject of nose blowing. after engaging in the practice fairly regularly for the past three-to-four days i started wondering whether it was worth it. i mean, a good nose blow might let me breathe through my nose for one or two breaths before it just gets clogged again. considering all the work it involves and the price of raw skin under my nose from excessive post-blow wipes, i questioned whether the costs are worth the benefits.

that question also raised a related issue that i have long considered: whether snot is effectively infinite (i.e. can it be produced as fast as it is expelled) and, if not, how long will it take to reach the bottom of the snot barrel leaving my nose unobstructed for an extended period of time?

not being a beck head, i turned to google, which led me to this article counseling against blowing one's entire nose. instead it advises that "the proper method is to blow one nostril at a time and to take decongestants."

which doesn't answer my question either, but it does dramatically increase the cost side of the cost/benefit analysis. if i blow each nostril individually that is twice the work of doing them in tandem, and probably a corresponding increase in irritation of the sous-nez region. plus the article doesn't even address the infinite snot problem! that problem is beyond even the powers of google.

goss?

wtf?


a country named ross so so much better.

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

adding a million people to the ranks of the jobless

john boehner spent the last few months calling the affordable care act "job-killing" or "job destroying". but it looks like all this talk of dead jobs earned boehner a little job- related bloodthirst of his own.

what motivates the egyptian military

via dagger aleph on FB, i read this piece by jonathan wright busting the myths about the egyptian military. the first one it busts:
the myth that the Egyptian military controls up to 40 percent, even 45 percent, of the economy (Augustus Richard Norton cited the 40 percebt figure in an article which I can no longer trace and Josh Stacher does not rule out 45 percent). If this was ever true, which I doubt, it ceased to be true many years ago. The balance between the private and public sectors of the Egyptian economy has been shifting inexorably in favour of the private sector since the mid-1970s, and the military plays no significant role in the sectors which are now dominant -- cement, steel, oil, gas, tourism, telecommunications, banking and petrochemicals. Two often-cited examples of the military role in the economy are its ownership of mineral water bottling plants and the production of washing machines in what used to be arms factories. Both of these enterprises came about under special circumstances. The mineral water operation is in the remote oasis of Siwa, close to the Libyan border, and began at a time when that area was under military control for strategic security reasons. The washing machine operation began in the 1970s when the Arab Organisation for Industrialization (AOI) collapsed and the Egyptian government needed to find ways to use excess capacity in the arms factories. The AOI was a joint Arab project for military production but the Arab partners pulled out when Egypt signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1979. Both these sectors are highly competitive and the army's market share (where it exists - I've never seen these washing machines in the market) is small.
it's a response to the point made by the planet money podcast that i touted last week. though i suppose it doesn't directly contradict what PM said. they did not go with a 40% or 45% figure, but rather noted that estimates vary widely between 5 and 40%. even if it were only 5 to 15% that still is a really significant portion of the egyptian economy. but more importantly (in terms of using that fact to analyze what the military might do next), even if wright is correct it could still be true that a large portion of the military's funding still might be from its businesses. that would still support PM's ultimate point, which is that the military has skin in the game. its economic interests give the egyptian military an incentive to keep up stability but not necessarily democracy. or at least the incentive for democracy only exists to the extent that is the only way that the military thinks it will have stability.

put another way: to the extent wright's myth-busting is a criticism of the PM point* he has it backwards. the egyptian military would not have to control a very large portion of the egyptian economy for that fact to influence the military's behavior. what would influence the military's behavior is the extent to which its funding comes from its investments in the egyptian economy. whether the egyptian military controls 5%, 20%, 40% or 45% of egyptian businesses is not as important as how big a percentage the military's investments are of its own budget.

in any case, we're all just reading tea leaves, right? the six months that the egyptian military says it will remain in control to organize elections is a long time. they're in a position to have enormous influence over what the new egypt ultimately looks like. and so we have optimists and pessimists trying to predict what the military will do when really no one knows for sure. the pessimists point to the military's ban on labor unions and strikes as a sign it is moving in an anti-democratic direction, whereas the optimists point to the fact that the military has appointed a broad based panel of respected jurists to revise the constitution as a sign that they are serious about real democratic reform.

------------------
* i'm calling it the "PM point" just as a shorthand even though planet money is hardly the only one making it.

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

ten years old

if a speech falls in the security council does it make a sound?

the indian foreign minister, in his first appearance before the UN security council, accidentally picked up the speech of the portuguese foreign minister and delivered the first three minutes of the portuguese FM's speech before anyone noticed.

and that means that no one noticed, not even the indian minister s.m. krishna, when krishna noted his "satisfaction regarding the happy coincidence of having two members of the Portuguese speaking countries" addressing the security council. i guess india could still be happy about that, even if it isn't one of the two. (plus with daman and goa, maybe krishna thought it was)

india's opposition is calling for krishna to lose his post, saying he lost his "moral right" to the position for bringing shame on india. but because no one pays any more attention to security council speeches outside the security council than they do inside, it's pretty unlikely that the mistake brought any actual shame on anyone.

(via blood & treasure)

fiscal austerity is the new iraq war, a slightly different take

DougJ at balloon juice writes:
The same people who pushed the Iraq War on us are now pushing fiscal austerity. Can you name any austerity hawks in this country who were not big Iraq War supporters? The arguments are similar too. We needed to invade Iraq to ward off the looming danger of WMD and spread freedom; we need to cut our budgets to ward off the bond vigilantes and teach ourselves discipline.
which is funny because over the last few days i have been mulling over a slightly different parallel between the iraq war hawks and current austerity hawks.

the iraq war came about because a group of terrorists, using low-tech items like small knives and box cutters hijacked a bunch of planes and used them to kill almost 3,000 people. somehow this low-tech attack using knives turned into hysteria about high-tech weapons of mass destruction, a different problem altogether, and had war hawks push the u.s. into a war against a country that had nothing to do with that original attack. the "solution" completely failed to address the original problem. in fact, it arguably made the original problem worse by giving al qaeda linked groups a new failed state to thrive in.

the current financial crisis currently facing the u.s. is the high unemployment rate. again and again americans (and even a majority of republicans) are telling pollsters that the job situation is the most pressing economic matter facing the country. somehow this economic uncertainty is turning into hysteria about the deficit, a different problem altogether. and so we are seeing austerity hawks push the u.s. into severe belt tightening that is likely to do nothing to improve the employment situation but rather as one of the leaders of the austerity hawks admits is likely to make the job situation worse.

as DougJ notes, the war hawks and austerity hawks are largely the same people. and once again those people are pushing this country into ignoring the real problem and choosing a "solution" that not only doesn't address what needs to be addressed, it is also is likely to only make things worse.

the enemy of my enemy is my friend, unless that first enemy is friends with another enemy then... oh, fuck it. just go with whatever the israeli right says is good for israel

i've been kind of curious how pam atlas would handle the latest outbreak of protests in iran. that spokesperson for the lunatic wing of the already-pretty-nuts american right has long reduced complex issues into simplistic good guys vs. bad guys. for most situations, pam has a fairly easy rule of thumb: for any conflict, find the muslim. muslim = bad guy. through this simple binary formula, pam regularly sees sunnis in league with shia (even sunni groups that are notoriously anti-shia, and vice-versa). everything gets reduced to the simple good vs. evil framework, just the sort of dumbed-down easy analysis that has gotten her so much attention.

but what happens if that confusingly complex wide world out makes a conflict with muslims on both sides?!?!? what will pam do?

but first, a quick background:

(1) iran 2009: good guys = protesters, bad guys = iranian government
in 2009 when demonstrations flared in iran over the stolen election, pam decreed the protesters = good guys. (it also worked out conveniently for pam because that instance of the iranian protests  failed, giving her the opportunity to blame obama for losing iran)

(2) egypt 2011: good guys = egyptian government, bad guys = protesters
pam was decidedly pro-mubarak/anti-egyptian people during the recent demonstrations in that country, viewing it all as an iranian plot to take over egypt via the muslim brotherhood. (and it worked out conveniently for pam that the protesters ended up forcing mubarak out of office, giving her the opportunity to blame obama for losing egypt)

(3) iran 2011: ?
now the iranian democracy movement is back. pam is already on record calling them the good guys from 2009. the problem is that the protestors are pretty openly saying that they are inspired by the egyptian democracy movement, who pam has already decreed are the bad guys. what will our favorite simpleminded islamaphobe do?

so far it looks like she is rooting for the iranian protesters and ignoring the contradiction. never mind that by her usual (extremely loose) guilt by association standards, any statement by even a single participant in the iranian protests suggesting they approved of what happened in egypt would have doomed the entire movement to perpetual bad guyness. depending on how much the iranians keep talking about egypt i'm not sure how long she can ignore the contradiction. one thing is for certain, when the dust clears, whatever happens that pam doesn't like will be all the president obama's fault.

Monday, February 14, 2011

i bet

if italy were an arab or muslim country, people would be saying this is part of the tunisian/egyptian democratic wave.

but it's not. so no one is.

flake to run for senate!

cue infinite repetition of the same joke.

romney has a point

romney's distinction between federal and state power to impose an individual mandate is not frivolous. there is a real legal distinction there. while the federal government is designed as a "limited government" and anything that congress passes has to be authorized by one of the enumerated powers in article I, section 8 of the constitution, state governments have a general police power to regulate anything they want (subject, of course, to any restrictions imposed by the state constitution, or any of the affirmative rights in the federal constitution).

so it is true that if the individual mandate in the affordable care act is ultimately found to be unconstitutional by the supreme court, that would not mean that the individual mandate in the massachusetts law would also be unconstitutional.

personally, i think the individual mandate in the ACA is constitutional under existing precedent (though i'm less certain how it will fare with the current supreme court). all i'm saying is that romney's much mocked federal/state distinction is not as silly as the general public may think. but i also think that because it does look silly, the fact that has has a winning legal argument won't necessarily translate to a winning political argument.

the new king of international illicit banking

switzerland's long reign as the place for dictators to hide the money that they loot from their home country is coming to an end. long live the UAE, the new banker of choice for the world's corrupt despots!!!

Sunday, February 13, 2011

chucking kefaya down the memory hole

the weird thing about articles like these discussing the role of bush's "freedom agenda" had in the recent revolution in egypt is how they never bother to even mention the kefaya movement that formed in 2004, made international headlines in 2005, then languished in 2006 and was declared all but dead in 2007. even though the movement had its origins in the protests against the u.s. invasion of iraq, after it turned its attention to democratic reform in egypt, it was hailed at the time as an example of arabs taking up bush's call for freedom and as part of a democratic wave emanating from the new iraq. then it failed, or at least went dormant, and bush boosters stopped mentioning it.

and apparently they're still not mentioning it. if you're going to argue that recent events in egypt were caused by bush administration policies, you should at least acknowledge the existence of the contemporaneous democracy movement to explain why the administration's policies weren't enough to make that one succeed while bush was still in office.

syria is not next

Assad Pictures
now that ben ali and mubarak are gone, i keep seeing articles floating ideas of who might be next. the main candidates seem to be algeria, yemen, jordan and syria.

i'm not sure why syria keeps making the list, other than wishful thinking on the part of the author. there have been serious signs of unrest in the those other three countries, things like: multiple demonstrations, conflicting reports about restrictions on internet and cell phone use in algeria, the dismissal of the jordanian cabinet, yemen's president vowing not to run for re-election in two years, etc.

but in syria (as far as i can tell) there just hasn't been that much sign of a strong democratic movement. a call by online activists called for a "day of rage" on february 4th and 5th resulted in a few sparsely attended demonstrations in some of the smaller cities, but not much in the major population centers. it is true that syria recently lifted its previously imposed restrictions on facebook and youtube. but it looks like that has more to do with the government's belief that it can more track activists if it stops forcing them to go through proxy servers than any concession to democratic pressure.

so while the "revolutionary wave" (or whatever you want to call it) may spread further, i just don't see it spreading to syria in the immediate future. then again, what do i know? i didn't think the tunisian protests would spread to egypt.

Friday, February 11, 2011

bought himself one day and more pissed off people

mubarak resigns. more proof that there was absolutely no point in his refusal to resign yesterday.

wouldn't it have been better if he dissolved parliament first? i guess suleiman can still do that. if you're going to have a real democracy, they need one that isn't just filled with mubarak cronies.

people rationalize

david sirota highlights the results of a recent poll:
According to new data crunched by Cornell University's Suzanne Mettler, large numbers of Americans who receive benefits from government social programs nonetheless tell pollsters they "have not used a government social program." And when I mean large, I mean large. For example, a majority of those who have received federally subsidized student loans, 44 percent of Social Security beneficiaries and 40 percent of G.I. bill recipients say they have not used a government social program.

These numbers go a long way to explaining why the economic debate in our country is so insane. Indeed, at a moment when taxes have hit a historic low, most politicians -- from presidents to governors to state legislators -- insist we must further cut taxes and shrink allegedly "Big Government." And they are finding a receptive audience in the general public because, as the numbers show, so many Americans wrongly believe they don't receive direct financial benefits from government.
i think this is the natural product of 30-40 years of GOP trashing of government programs. the welfare queen is thoroughly entrenched in our national conscience. on a gut level a lot of americans think that people who get government benefits are bad. that gut feeling persists even when they themselves receive government benefits. so to resolve their cognitive dissonance, they refuse to believe that the benefits they are getting are government benefits.

everyone knows that only bad people are on government assistance. i'm not a bad person, so i must not be getting anything from the goverment. QED

(via mustang bobby)

Thursday, February 10, 2011

mubarak blows it

earlier, embattled president hosni mubarak scheduled a televised address to the egyptian nation. then word leaked out that mubarak was probably going to announce that he was stepping down, causing all sorts of excitement and speculation. then the address came and instead mubarak used the opportunity to tell everyone that he refuses to step down until the september elections.

so did hosni totally blow that or what? assuming this was his plan all along (and he didn't suddenly change his mind about stepping down after news of his expected resignation leaked out), i can't think of a better way to piss off and energize the opposition. what did he gain by that tv appearance that he wouldn't have had by bunkering down and staying quiet like he has been doing over the past few days?

in a world filled with instant egypt experts, i'm not going to pretend to be one now. but it's hard to see how this wasn't a major miscalculationon mubarak's part. what am i missing?

ADDING: see marc lynch's take on the worst speech ever.

egypt's military, inc.

in the comments to this post Greg L. recommended the planet money podcast egypt's military, inc.. i finally got around to listening to it yesterday and i highly recommend it.

if nothing else, it looks at the situation in egypt (and the egyptian military's motives) from an angle that no one else seems to be taking. while i think the podcast should have at least mentioned the enormous u.s. aid package that provides most of their funding when it discussed that institution's economic interests and motives, i hadn't been aware of the fact that the military owns such a substantial portion of the businesses in the egyptian economy. that, like u.s. funding, will also be the lens through which military leaders view each decision as they weather the protest's storm. check it out.

it may be bad for AT&T...

...but having some competition is only good for AT&T iphone customers. if only apple would let t-mobile in on the iphone game, then we would have real competition between two GSM-based networks (which would mean you wouldn't have to buy a new phone to switch carriers, as you do if you want to go from an AT&T iphone to verizon. verizon has a CMDA, rather than a GSM, network. switching between the networks requires a difference in hardware, whereas switching between two GSM networks would just require a new SIM card)

Wednesday, February 09, 2011

looks like i picked the wrong week to quit huffing the post

hufFAIL

and in other news, the folks here at upyernoz central are excited to announce our new "snort"feature. by clicking a new "snort it" icon you'll be able to indicate the posts you like. we'll get that up and running shortly after we unveil that new "rubber hose" banner that has been allegedly in the works since around 2005.

(via roxanne on FB)

patriot games

the unexpected defeat of the renewal of the patriot act is not going to stop the patriot act from being renewed fairly soon. what it will do is draw attention to the renewal effort.

the patriot act isn't that popular. house leaders were trying to sneak it through with limited debate (breaking the new GOP leadership's promises to post the text of all bills 72 hours before the vote) to avoid the public taking notice. the renewal failed this time because it failed to get a 2/3 majority that was needed under the house's expedited procedures. but the vote was still 277 in favor to 148 against, which means it will easily pass when they use the non-expedited procedures that require a simple majority.

except now there's a news story. the unexpectedness of the defeat and the fact that it resulted from an unusual alliance between a few tea partiers and dennis kucinich makes this too shiny to keep the media away. i have no doubt that the extension will still pass. except now people might start talking about whether an extension is a good idea. that's not a conversation that either congressional leaders or the white house want to happen.

Tuesday, February 08, 2011

but "bounty" sounds much more evil than "reward"!

rumsfeld says that saddam hussein put a bounty on george bush's daughters. that just goes to show how depraved and uncivilized saddam hussein was, right?

i mean, who would set a bounty on a foreign leader's children?

Dolphin-loving food co-op members are close to realizing their dream of a New World Order that will prevent you from worshipping Jesus, which is exactly what the Nazis did to the Jews

another pearl of wisdom courtesy of the glenn beck conspiracy theory generator.

(via MatthewB on FB)

arming a rooster

apparently not a good idea.

kazakhstan kazakhstan kazakhstan!

at some point the NYT online linked this blog to its kazakhstan news page through a blogrunner feed. usually when i post about kazakhstan, a link often appears under the "headlines around the web" heading in the middle of the that page. it's not a bad idea. i think this blog only makes the cut for the kaz page because so few people are writing in english about that place. also, it seems to be an automated system, because i doubt if they would have lined to this post if anyone were reading its content.

Monday, February 07, 2011

pessimistic

it looks to me like the revolution in egypt is slowly being co-opted by the u.s. and others interested in maintaining something close to the status quo. sure, mubarak is on his way out. but other than swapping heads at the top, it's looking like the new system won't be all that different from the old system when the dust finally clears. maybe there will be some token members of the MB and other opposition parties having some, effectively powerless, role in the new egyptian government. but otherwise, a couple of lambs will be sacrificed and the rest of the old power structure will resume business as usual. relations with israel will slip back into the old comfortable pattern: gaza will stay blockaded and, most importantly, the american aid gravy train will keep flowing as it was before.

i could be wrong, of course. that's just where it looks like it is going at this particular moment. i'm still convinced that if the u.s. told the egyptian military that mubarak needed to dissolve parliament, call a new election for both parliament and the president, and then resign and leave the country or else all u.s. aid would stop, hosni would be picking out the curtains in his london flat later this week. but that's not going to happen because that's not what the u.s. wants to happen.

i keep seeing people critical of those who talk about american influence over the events in egypt. "this isn't about you", one middle-eastern commentator wrote. if only that were true. that is how it should be. the bottom line is that the egyptian military is one of the few parties in egypt that is in a position to determine the outcome. and the u.s., as the entity that signs the military's paycheck, has the power to get the egyptian military to do what it wants.

to those who say that the u.s. should not get involved, i say we're already involved. our tax dollars are paying for this regime. we bought them long ago. the u.s. just can't make it too obvious that it is calling the shots if it wants to avoid blame for the consequences of what comes next.


paranoid-messianic rodeo clowns don't go quietly

over the weekend joe klein wrote:
I've heard, from more than a couple of conservative sources, that prominent Republicans have approached Rupert Murdoch and Roger Ailes about the potential embarrassment that the paranoid-messianic rodeo clown may bring upon their brand. The speculation is that Beck is on thin ice. His ratings are dropping, too--which, in the end, is a good part of what this is all about. But I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a mirror-Olbermann situation soon.
the problem is that there's no reason to believe that glenn beck wouldn't kick and scream his entire way out the door. especially since the 2008 election, the conservative movement has been quite willing to push some of the most ridiculous ideas and paranoid conspiracies into mainstream discourse. beck seems to have found the limits of what key members of the movement are willing to tolerate. but after giving him such a big microphone, i don't know how they can contain him without having beck snipe back. beck, i imagine, probably has a bigger and broader audience than william kristol. billy's sparkling conservative pedigree notwithstanding, if forced to choose a lot of the teabaggers won't choose him over beck. i can only imagine the paranoid fueled shitstorm beck could trigger if they ever tried to take his microphone away.

there are disadvantages to building your coalition on the shoulders of people who actively promote ignorance and stupidity.

the worst bureaucracy this side of kazakhstan

once again, i wonder how anyone in the u.s. who has private health insurance and who has had to deal with their insurance company could possibly believe that this system makes any sense. in the 1990s i had a protracted battle with blue cross over mrs. noz's coverage. it took several weeks, a few letters on legal stationary, and a bunch of close readings of insurance regulations, but ultimately i managed to win that battle. still, i'm fairly certain i would not have if i were not a lawyer. in fact, since that time, i have occasionally written "lawyer letters" on behalf of friends to help them navigate their own private insurance nightmares.

what brings this up now is that we added noz jr. as a dependent and suddenly i'm wasting a ton of time again fighting for what should be a fairly simple matter of having his effective date of coverage reflect when my work started paying his premiums. and this follows last week's battle when the insurance company notified me that it had dropped my primary care physician as an acceptable provider and i was told that i would have to choose a new one. (no need to fear the government taking over and telling me who i can have as my doctor when private for-profit bureaucrats are doing that already) i won last week's fight. this week's fight is still currently pending as i am still on hold as i type this.

and yet, so much of the resistance to health care reform seemed to be driven by people's fears of no longer having insurance they already have. who are these people? have they ever tried to actually deal with their insurance company?

Sunday, February 06, 2011

too crazy even for ronnie

the only interesting thing about ronald reagan's 100th birthday is watching the collision between ronald reagan, the actual historical figure, and ronald reagan, the mytholigical ideal of the american right. i doubt the historic ronald reagan could get support from the current GOP. i mean, the modern GOP is targeting dick lugar for supporting the NEW START treaty. that treaty is a successor to the original START treaty (i.e. START I) which was first proposed by president ronald reagan.

if ronald reagan were running on his record today, he would probably be branded a RINO by the very same people who hold him out as the ideal of what a GOP candidate should be. his son's reaction is not all that surprising. nor is fact that the right's reaction to any myth-busting is mostly denial.

ADDING: essentially the same point, said better.

bush cancels trip to switzerland

as i predicted years ago, high officials in the bush administration should give up any plans to visit europe for the rest of their lives. they risk prosecution if they go almost anywhere outside of the u.s., except china, israel, saudi arabia, and other countries that won't prosecute these kinds of crimes. also, if i were their lawyer, i would warn them to only take direct flights. beware stopovers in a jurisdiction that is wiling to prosecute international crimes!

of course,it's pretty unlikely that a former president of the u.s. would ever actually be prosecuted. if bush did go to switzerland and was arrested, there would be a major international hubbub. no doubt the u.s. government would make sure that no prosecution ever went forward. but i'm not so certain that policy-makers below the president and vice president would enjoy the same protection. someone like john yoo would face a real risk of being pinocheted.

Friday, February 04, 2011

literal map of the world

(click to embiggen)

via CT, check out this map labeled with the word-derived meaning of each country's name in english.

n=1

last night i chatted online with an egyptian who lives in central cairo. mostly i was just trying to practice reading and typing in arabic, but i asked him about current events and he answered. so now i get to tell everyone that i know exactly what the "arab street" is saying.

the arab street is vaguely pro-mubarak, or at least it wants the protests and violence to end, mubarak to stay on for now but not run for reelection in september and to have everything go back to peace and normalcy asap.

a related question: does any other ethnic group in the world have a "street"? i've never heard of the chinese kenyan or peruvian streets. maybe it's more ethnic than national. but i've never heard of a han, kikuyu or quechua streets either.

Thursday, February 03, 2011

من متاسفم ، اما این وبلاگ به زبان فارسی نوشته نشده است

lately a seemingly large percentage of my hits come from people from iran doing searches like these: 1 2 3 4

as a result, most of my visitors seem to be visiting this page. in fact, if you look at my entry page stats, (as of this moment) 149 of my last 500 visitors came in via that post, almost 30% of my total visits and three times as many as the number of visitors that entered on the home page. this site has pretty small daily hit numbers, so that's probably only about 60 persian visitors per day. but that means sixty people per day come to this blog searching for the same thing that isn't here. that's a lot of frustrated persians.

i don't really know what to make of it. is the persian web so small that my only post with farsi in the title makes it to the top of the search results by default? and why did this phenomenon only become noticeable in the past few weeks?

ICG report on central asia

the international crisis group released its report on development in central asia. (a pdf of the full report is here). while the report is harshest in its assessment of the other four former soviet central asian republics, kazakhstan still doesn't come off that well, even though it is considered to be "in a league of its own" above the others. as the summary for the kazakhstan section states:
Although Kazakhstan has pursued reforms and invested in infrastructure, the outcome has been disappointing. The country will continue experiencing social stratification in access to quality education and good healthcare. As elite schools and modern clinics in cities co-exist with their dilapidated counterparts in neighbouring villages, social tensions are likely to rise within a growing rural, southern underclass. The country may not be able to achieve greater international competitiveness due to the low quality of the national transportation system, a shortage of technical expertise and negative impact of poor health on productivity. This would spell the end to any hopes of modernisation decreasing the reliance on extractive industries. Donors have yet to find new ways to influence a government that does not rely much on foreign aid.
(via JFL)

egypt ≠ iran

juan cole pops the bubble on the "iran 1979 = egypt 2011" comparison. unfortunately, he does not address all of the reasons that this comparison keeps being made. they are as follows:

(1) egypt, like iran, is a predominantly muslim state.

(2) ...uh, there is no 2.

and that's pretty much it. if you really believe that the course of a revolt is determined by the dominant religion in the country then you would expect that the 1986 "people power" movement in the philippines would end up with exactly the same form of government as the cuban revolution in the 1950s. actually, cuba and the philippines are at least both predominantly catholic. the majority of egyptians and iranians don't even follow the same sect of islam.

Wednesday, February 02, 2011

stuck on SEPTA blogging

at least the ice-encased trees are pretty.

Tuesday, February 01, 2011

behold the crazy

i saw all the buzz about glenn beck's completely insane egypt rant before i got to see it myself. it really does meet my wildest expectations. if you haven't seen it already, check it out:



but the craziest thing of all is that the channel that broadcast this guy actually presents itself as a serious news source.

buzzing against hill's plan

yesterday, i happened upon this post at hillbuzz, a site formed in support of hillary clinton's presidential campaign. after she lost, it morphed into a PUMA site and then just another generic rightwing nuthouse, but still under the banner of a waving clinton.

anyway, i left the following comment:
i find it really odd that this site would take this attitude towards the individual mandate. one of the few actual policy differences between candidate clinton and candidate obama was that clinton’s health plan had an individual mandate and the obama health plan did not. that’s why during the primaries clinton supporters slammed obama for not having a health care plan that was truly universal. clinton’s plan was universal because of the individual mandate.
after obama took office, he ended up incorporating hillary’s individual mandate into his plan. it just makes me wonder whether you would still be calling it “unconstitutional and reckless” if the primary battle had gone the other way.
when i hit the "post"  button i was told the comment was in the moderation queue, pending review. a few hours later i checked back and it was no longer in the queue, but it wasn't posted either. it was simply censored. i tried to leave a nice comment thanking them for protecting their readers from any comment that contained information they didn't like and found that i was banned from commenting on the site as well.

if you have any question whether my comment was correct, here's a news report from september 2007, when clinton unveiled her health plan that notes the centrality of the individual mandate in her plan, here's a paul krugman column from february 2008 comparing the two plans noting  that "the big difference [between the two plans] is mandates: the Clinton plan requires that everyone have insurance; the Obama plan doesn’t."

in any case, it's a testament to the weakness of kevindujan01's convictions that he would be too afraid to let a non-insulting substantive comment like mine to get through. anyone who isn't banned from that site is still free to drop in and leave a comment to that post (or any other). if you feel like doing it, be polite.


probably stating the obvious

with the egyptian economy tanking and the military saying that it won't crack down on the protesters to support the current regime it's probably time for hosni to find a place to quietly retire. i think it's now inevitable that mubarak is done. it will be much better for everyone if they quickly find a caretaker to transition the government to something else and then leaves the country sooner rather than later.

ezra klein is right

the most likely scenario that would get us to a single payer system is if the supreme court strikes down the ACA.

it's never made sense to me why insurance companies didn't get behind and lobby hard for the act. obama's strategy from the beginning was to try to bring the industry on board with reform, and an ACA-type reform, which requires millions of americans to become new customers for the industry, is clearly more in the company's interest than just about every alternative reform proposal, including no reform. obama's efforts to win over the insurance industry didn't work. i think it failure purely for cultural issues. for the same reason fortune 500 companies (that aren't health insurance companies) didn't get behind single payer, even though if single payer were enacted it would end up externalizing a large portion of their personnel costs. the people who run big influential companies tend to be laissez-faire types. that, it seems, trumps the interests of their shareholders.