a prediction
but if it does happen, or if the u.s. takes part in any other kind of military intervention in libya, i'm quite certain that the phrase "the shores of tripoli" will be used in too many headlines.
where i blather on about stuff and you read it and like it
two attempts to map out who currently controls what in libya.
over lunch i dropped in on the solidarity rally down the street. it was very well attended, much more of a crowd than i expected on a cold dreary day. the local unions (both public and private sector) had a major presence.
saif qaddafi's recent speech got people looking at his doctoral dissertation: "The Role of Civil Society in the Democratization of Global Governance Institutions: From ‘Soft Power’ to Collective Decision-Making?." (pdf)
He offered a vague package of reforms in his televised speech, potentially including a new flag, national anthem and confederate structure.wow! a new national anthem!!!
the myth that the Egyptian military controls up to 40 percent, even 45 percent, of the economy (Augustus Richard Norton cited the 40 percebt figure in an article which I can no longer trace and Josh Stacher does not rule out 45 percent). If this was ever true, which I doubt, it ceased to be true many years ago. The balance between the private and public sectors of the Egyptian economy has been shifting inexorably in favour of the private sector since the mid-1970s, and the military plays no significant role in the sectors which are now dominant -- cement, steel, oil, gas, tourism, telecommunications, banking and petrochemicals. Two often-cited examples of the military role in the economy are its ownership of mineral water bottling plants and the production of washing machines in what used to be arms factories. Both of these enterprises came about under special circumstances. The mineral water operation is in the remote oasis of Siwa, close to the Libyan border, and began at a time when that area was under military control for strategic security reasons. The washing machine operation began in the 1970s when the Arab Organisation for Industrialization (AOI) collapsed and the Egyptian government needed to find ways to use excess capacity in the arms factories. The AOI was a joint Arab project for military production but the Arab partners pulled out when Egypt signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1979. Both these sectors are highly competitive and the army's market share (where it exists - I've never seen these washing machines in the market) is small.it's a response to the point made by the planet money podcast that i touted last week. though i suppose it doesn't directly contradict what PM said. they did not go with a 40% or 45% figure, but rather noted that estimates vary widely between 5 and 40%. even if it were only 5 to 15% that still is a really significant portion of the egyptian economy. but more importantly (in terms of using that fact to analyze what the military might do next), even if wright is correct it could still be true that a large portion of the military's funding still might be from its businesses. that would still support PM's ultimate point, which is that the military has skin in the game. its economic interests give the egyptian military an incentive to keep up stability but not necessarily democracy. or at least the incentive for democracy only exists to the extent that is the only way that the military thinks it will have stability.
The same people who pushed the Iraq War on us are now pushing fiscal austerity. Can you name any austerity hawks in this country who were not big Iraq War supporters? The arguments are similar too. We needed to invade Iraq to ward off the looming danger of WMD and spread freedom; we need to cut our budgets to ward off the bond vigilantes and teach ourselves discipline.which is funny because over the last few days i have been mulling over a slightly different parallel between the iraq war hawks and current austerity hawks.

mubarak resigns. more proof that there was absolutely no point in his refusal to resign yesterday.
According to new data crunched by Cornell University's Suzanne Mettler, large numbers of Americans who receive benefits from government social programs nonetheless tell pollsters they "have not used a government social program." And when I mean large, I mean large. For example, a majority of those who have received federally subsidized student loans, 44 percent of Social Security beneficiaries and 40 percent of G.I. bill recipients say they have not used a government social program.i think this is the natural product of 30-40 years of GOP trashing of government programs. the welfare queen is thoroughly entrenched in our national conscience. on a gut level a lot of americans think that people who get government benefits are bad. that gut feeling persists even when they themselves receive government benefits. so to resolve their cognitive dissonance, they refuse to believe that the benefits they are getting are government benefits.
These numbers go a long way to explaining why the economic debate in our country is so insane. Indeed, at a moment when taxes have hit a historic low, most politicians -- from presidents to governors to state legislators -- insist we must further cut taxes and shrink allegedly "Big Government." And they are finding a receptive audience in the general public because, as the numbers show, so many Americans wrongly believe they don't receive direct financial benefits from government.
rumsfeld says that saddam hussein put a bounty on george bush's daughters. that just goes to show how depraved and uncivilized saddam hussein was, right?
another pearl of wisdom courtesy of the glenn beck conspiracy theory generator.
I've heard, from more than a couple of conservative sources, that prominent Republicans have approached Rupert Murdoch and Roger Ailes about the potential embarrassment that the paranoid-messianic rodeo clown may bring upon their brand. The speculation is that Beck is on thin ice. His ratings are dropping, too--which, in the end, is a good part of what this is all about. But I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a mirror-Olbermann situation soon.the problem is that there's no reason to believe that glenn beck wouldn't kick and scream his entire way out the door. especially since the 2008 election, the conservative movement has been quite willing to push some of the most ridiculous ideas and paranoid conspiracies into mainstream discourse. beck seems to have found the limits of what key members of the movement are willing to tolerate. but after giving him such a big microphone, i don't know how they can contain him without having beck snipe back. beck, i imagine, probably has a bigger and broader audience than william kristol. billy's sparkling conservative pedigree notwithstanding, if forced to choose a lot of the teabaggers won't choose him over beck. i can only imagine the paranoid fueled shitstorm beck could trigger if they ever tried to take his microphone away.
the only interesting thing about ronald reagan's 100th birthday is watching the collision between ronald reagan, the actual historical figure, and ronald reagan, the mytholigical ideal of the american right. i doubt the historic ronald reagan could get support from the current GOP. i mean, the modern GOP is targeting dick lugar for supporting the NEW START treaty. that treaty is a successor to the original START treaty (i.e. START I) which was first proposed by president ronald reagan.
Although Kazakhstan has pursued reforms and invested in infrastructure, the outcome has been disappointing. The country will continue experiencing social stratification in access to quality education and good healthcare. As elite schools and modern clinics in cities co-exist with their dilapidated counterparts in neighbouring villages, social tensions are likely to rise within a growing rural, southern underclass. The country may not be able to achieve greater international competitiveness due to the low quality of the national transportation system, a shortage of technical expertise and negative impact of poor health on productivity. This would spell the end to any hopes of modernisation decreasing the reliance on extractive industries. Donors have yet to find new ways to influence a government that does not rely much on foreign aid.(via JFL)
i saw all the buzz about glenn beck's completely insane egypt rant before i got to see it myself. it really does meet my wildest expectations. if you haven't seen it already, check it out:
i find it really odd that this site would take this attitude towards the individual mandate. one of the few actual policy differences between candidate clinton and candidate obama was that clinton’s health plan had an individual mandate and the obama health plan did not. that’s why during the primaries clinton supporters slammed obama for not having a health care plan that was truly universal. clinton’s plan was universal because of the individual mandate.
after obama took office, he ended up incorporating hillary’s individual mandate into his plan. it just makes me wonder whether you would still be calling it “unconstitutional and reckless” if the primary battle had gone the other way.when i hit the "post" button i was told the comment was in the moderation queue, pending review. a few hours later i checked back and it was no longer in the queue, but it wasn't posted either. it was simply censored. i tried to leave a nice comment thanking them for protecting their readers from any comment that contained information they didn't like and found that i was banned from commenting on the site as well.