The Age of Elite Impunity

I don't think there's a big mystery about why Matt Gaetz escaped federal charges. The elite in this country, more often than not, do not face legal accountability for their actions. It's the background assumption for everyone in power, including Merrick Gartland. Sure, everyone likes to talk about equal justice under the law, and all our courthouses have that statue of lady justice with a blindfold as a symbol that justice is blind. But in fact that's not even close to true. You can see that everywhere.

In fact, that is the reason that Trump will be President again. It's why the Supreme Court ruled that he was broadly immune from prosecution, and that the Constitutional prohibition against anyone who took part in an insurrection against the U.S. does not exclude him from office even though that's exactly what he did. The underlying assumption is that it is unreasonable to exclude him from power, even when the language of the constitution points pretty clearly to that conclusion. The J6 rank-and-file can be prosecuted to the full extent of the law because they are regular people. The law applies to regulars, not the important ones. Just because Elon Musk violated the conflict of interest rules that all other federal contractors are subject to, doesn't mean that we can cancel contracts to the richest man in the world! He's the richest man in the world! That's all the explanation we need, or at least all the one we will get.

Maybe it has always been this way, I just bought into the justice is blind myth more before. Maybe this isn't so much of an age of impunity than impunity for elites is a constant in human society. That still doesn't make it right.

The biggest threat isn't Trump, it is capitulation

I'm not surprised that Trump is terrible. We all have known that for almost a decade now. What I'm surprised by is the extent to which almost everyone with any power is rolling over for him. When he won the first time in 2016, there were demonstrations. Everyone was talking about resistance. Remember when  most of the media industry was using the idea of resistance as a marketing tool? The Washington Post adopted the slogan "Democracy Dies in the Darkness" just after Trump was inaugurated. Remember Democratic leaders promising to fight Trump?

None of that is happening now. That's really what is terrifying me.

Blog neglect

My posting habits have changed quite a bit over the years here at Rubber Hose. There was a time when I was posting almost daily. And then there are a few months when I have only posted once or twice. Inconsistency is what I am most consistent at!

But there are certain annual posts I just always do, like whining about how much I hate the State of the Union Address. Also, until this year, my birthday.

What can I say I just blew it. It fell on Thanksgiving this year and Mrs. Noz and I were hosting the big family meal so I was pretty busy that day. But I still could have tossed something up. How hard is it?

Worse it took until this weekend for me to even realize I missed it, already more than a week late. And when I realize it, I was literally and figuratively unplugged. Playing complicated board games is when extraneous thoughts tend to pop into my head. So I figured it out a few days ago and today is the first day I could really do anything about it.

Should I do anything about it? Does anyone care about these traditions but me?

The answer, of course, is who gives a fuck? I do this blog for me, not you! There's only a handful of you anyway. I've never tried to build any audience here, even back in the day when there was such a thing for Web 2.0 blogs. This place is more about self-expression, and just getting stuff off my chest so I can focus more on bigger issues (like how do you play Civolution?)

Anyway, through the magic of editing the publication date, I have, on this day, 11 days into my 56th year, created the illusion that I wrote a 55th birthday post on time. Consider this to be our little secret.

Normal blogging will resume shortly, except what counts as "normal" here has no real schedule. Just remember to keep checking so my traffic numbers get inflated.

I am a speed limit from the oil crisis

 

I'm the top speed in the U.S. between 1974 and 1987! And I was alive throughout that entire range of years! Look how cool (and old) I am!

To celebrate I declare today to be a national holiday, when we will all eat Turkee, except for all those haters. And also people in other countries. Anyway... yay!

Previously: 54 53 52 51 50 49 48 47 46, 45, 44, 43, 42, [41], 40, 39, 38, 37, 36, 35, 34

Where is our corrupt system when you need it?

I keep waiting for Big Pharma plus the rest of the medical industry to take out the RFK Jr. nomination. Seriously, what point is there to spending hundreds of millions of dollars to buy up most of our politicians if you can't use that influence to end the nomination of a man who threatens to destroy their entire business?

The man had a worm in his brain! He once beheaded a whale! He also did this bizarre cover-up of the death of a baby bear in Central Park! And that's not even mentioning the sexual misconduct. The man is the lowest-hanging fruit of vulnerable nominees. Aren't our capitalist overlords good for anything?!?!?!

plus ça change...

I wonder if the *new* Republican Congressional majority is any better at electing a speaker than the old one was.

Opportunity for Tehran

I wonder if Iran might have a shot at reconciling (or at least getting better relations) with the U.S. in the second Trump term. The first term was terrible for Iran. Trump backed out of the nuclear deal it negotiated with Obama and Trump assassinated Qasem Soleimani. But there are several factors that make it more likely that Trump will reconcile with Iran in his second term:

First, Trump very few actual principles, which makes it easy for him to make complete reversals of his prior positions.

Second, Trump has fallen out with old guard neo-cons like John Bolton. Bolton is extremely hostile to Iran and was Trump's national security advisor. After he left the Trump administration, he has become a harsh critic of Trump, calling him "unfit" to be president. Without Bolton and his cohort, there will not be the same anti-Iranian whispers in his ear.

Third, Russia is now an ally of Iran. If Putin is friends with someone, Trump is more likely to go along.

Fourth, the Saudis hostility towards Iran is less severe than it was in his first term. Saudi Arabia is not as influential on Trump as Russia is, but it is another dictatorial regime that has learned how to manipulate Trump. While the Saudis won't necessarily push him to reconcile with Tehran, they are likely to be less hostile to the idea than they were between 2017 and 2020.

Fifth, there is no agreement with Iran with any opponent's (Obama or Biden's) fingerprints for Trump to be hostile about.

Sixth, Trump really wants to be a peacemaker in the middle east. He claimed he could do it, and that's a lot harder to do without involving Iran.

The only major impediments I see to Trump improving relations with Iran is the Israelis will hate the idea, and because Iran was so thoroughly demonized in the U.S. in the 1970s and 1980s (when Trump seems to have formed his opinion about most things). But if Iran butters him up enough, I don't think that stuff will really matter. Hell, I bet Iranians can get sanction relief if they just let Trump build a Trump Tower in Tehran.

Laws may not be honored in Trump 2.0 but they should matter

I get that the Trump train is coming, so we're going to have a whole new level of lawlessness in this country, but can people at least acknowledge that the legal limits on what Trump can do exist? I've read a few pieces about what tariffs Trump may impose soon after inauguration day. I've kinda sought them out. I know, it's masochism. But we all cope in our own ways!

Anyway, most of these articles talk about the tariffs Trump will slap on Mexico without ever noting that legally he doesn't have the power to unilaterally impose a tariff on Mexico. It's not even a gray area. Trump can't do it without passing legislation through Congress because of a law that Trump himself signed.

To explain this, I need to back up a bit. The Constitution defines what powers each branch of government has. Article I sets out what Congress has the power to do, Article II sets out what the President has the power to do. On the question of who gets to impose tariffs, the answer is crystal clear: only Congress has that power. Article I, Section 8, Clause 1 gives Congress the power "to lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises" (a "duty" is a tariff on imported goods).  So how did Trump slap tariffs left and right in his first term? Since the 1930s, Congress has delegated its authority to levy tariffs to the President through various laws. Most importantly, through the Trade Act of 1974 Congress gave the President the power to impose tariffs on foreign countries to counteract "injurious and unfair" foreign trade practices. That law was the statutory basis for most (if not all) of Trump's tariff-imposing executive orders between 2017 and 2020.

But subsequent laws passed by Congress override whatever prior laws say. After the Trade Act of 1974, Congress ratified various trade agreements with Mexico which set a different tariff regime for U.S.-Mexican trade. Most recently, the USMCA, the successor to NAFTA, that the Trump administration negotiated with Canada and Mexico, and which was ratified by Congress and signed into law by Trump in 2020. The USMCA now defines the tariffs that can be imposed by the U.S., on Mexican imports. It does not fall under the delegation of tariff authority under the Tariff Act of 1974 like other nations' imports do.

I have no doubt that if imposing tariffs on Mexico is important to Trump he will try to do it anyway. I doubt he understands the USMCA at all. But doing so would not be legal. Whether the increasingly trumpy courts find some way to bend the law into a pretzel to rationalize allowing him to do it is another question. But still, when journalists write articles about the possibility that Trump may slap tariffs on Mexican imports, they should at least mention that unless he gets Congress to pass a new law authorizing him to do that, that tariff would be illegal.