A day after losing 15 marines in fighting along the Euphrates River, the American military command here said Thursday that suicide attacks had declined as a result of its three-month campaign to stem the flow of foreign fighters coming down the river valley from Syria.why is it good news that the proportion of suicide attacks among all attacks is down? the total number of attacks has been holding steady at 65 per day. if the proportion of suicide attacks is going down, all that means is that the proportion of non-suicide attacks is going up. that adds up to no progress at all on the overall number of attacks.
Brig. Gen. C. Donald Alston, chief spokesman for the American command, said 13 car bombings occurred in Iraq last week, only three of which were suicide bombings, the lowest weekly figures since the current counterinsurgency campaign in western Anbar Province began. The military regards car bombings, suicide bombings in particular, as a rough measure of foreign fighter activity because it contends that most of the suicide bombers are foreign militants.
"When I look at the bar charts, the statistics are a clear indication that the tempo of suicide attacks has decreased," General Alston said, noting that the percentage of car bombings involving suicide bombers was as high as 60 percent a few months ago. He expressed optimism that the flow of foreign fighters was ebbing. "This is not an expanding insurgency," he said.
both suicide and non-suicide attacks are horrible. the suicide ones are not necessarily worse. neither of the two attacks that killed a record number of marines earlier this week were suicide attacks. in fact, all else being equal, suicide attacks are better than non-suicide attacks. after all, suicide attackers have a remarkably low recidivism rate. successful suicide bombers never bomb a second time. non-suicide attackers, on the other hand, can keep returning for more death and destruction. having more insurgents who are not suicidal only adds to the staying power of the insurgency.
so, if anything, signs that the insurgents are less likely to kill themselves while perpetrating attacks is not a positive sign at all. i realize the military spokesmen are always trying to put a positive spin on things, especially in the midst of this particularly bad week, but there's no need to insult our intelligence like this.
