Wednesday, October 12, 2005

shot in the dark

as i read this article about the last-minute changes to the iraqi constitution and considered writing yet another post slamming yet another example of how the drafters set out a system of constitution-drafting rules to make the process fair and open, and then utter disregard them.

then i changed my mind. i'm not writing that post. sure, i still believe that the constitution-writing process is a complete mess, that the growing list of irregularities will allow people who don't like the new regime to have a strong argument that it is illegitimate, and that it really is impossible to have a meaningful referendum on a long complicated constitution when the voting public is only given an outdated copy of the text they are voting on (and multiple contradictory copies at that).

but the more i thought about it the more i realized that all that damage was already done before this latest example of fiddling. the referendum is going to be flawed no matter what they do at this late date. anyone who wants to view the constitution as illegitimate already had plenty of reasons. one more won't make a difference. prior to these new changes, the insurgency was facing a win-win situation when it came to the vote. in short, the constitution-drafting process was already a train wreck, which lay on top of a heap of other train wrecks that litter the new iraq political landscape. if the constitution turns into the disaster i fear it will be, it won't be because of this week's changes.

the status quo was already a mess and something had to be done. so why not try to temper the sunni's anger over the draft constitution at the last minute? it probably won't win over most of them, but even if it satisfies a few, it's better than how things were before.

i hope these changes to the constitution (the details of which are not all that clear to me) somehow make things a little better in iraq. i doubt they will, but it's worth a shot. honestly, there's not much to lose at this point.