a little over three years ago, i was taking a train back to philly from new york. i don't remember why i was in new york, but i do remember i missed the cheap train, so i was forced to take on of those spiffy acela trains where everything is business class.
anyway, i remember sitting in the dining car at a table doing my arabic homework and trying to ignore the loud guy at the next table talking about the virtues of invading iraq. the guy wasn't talking about alleged ties to terrorists or weapons of mass destruction, or any of the things the impending war was supposed to be about. instead he explained, quite straightforwardly, that the war was about oil. and that the only way to get gas prices down and to avoid inflationary pressures was to seize iraqi oil fields.
so there i sat, sickened by the idea that anyone could endorse an invasion that even under the best case scenario would result in the deaths of hundreds of people, just for cheaper gas. as much as i thought the other arguments for war were misguided, at least they didn't amount to killing people for money. on top of that, it was so obviously wrong. war in general doesn't drive prices down, it causes uncertainty that drives prices up. and seizing iraqi oil institutions would practically assure that iraqis would resist the u.s., which would work to keep oil prices inflated. that seemed rather obvious, and indeed, that's how it always happened before. in both saudi arabia and iran, foreign attempts to control domestic oil production led to an anti-western backlash.
as this guy went on and on about the post-war cheap energy bonanza he was envisioning, i struggled to keep my mouth shut. somehow i managed to by staying focused on my homework. but i couldn't help shooting a glance over to them now and then. at one point the guy who was being spoken to caught by eye. and i could see him recognize the funny squiggly letters spread out on the table in front of me. he whispered something to his companion and the two of them left the dining car.
a few weeks later, the u.s. invaded iraq. and three years later the war continues and gas prices are 60-65% higher than they were back when i heard that loudmouth on the train.
that story came to mind when i read about steve forbes prescription to lower gas prices today. meanwhile, the fear that there might be war in iran have pushed the price of oil to record highs.
in these troubled times we can at least all take comfort in the fact that steve forbes will never be president.
