i think josh's view of the situation is basically right. but i also think that the "one conceivable way back from the brink"--placing a multinational force in southern lebanon--is simply not going to happen. at least not until after israel's ground attack happens. not before.
the problem is that israel has already rejected that proposal. and the bush administration, the only entity that has a realistic chance of convincing israel to change its mind, isn't interested either.
so the bloodbath will continue. already the lebanese army says it will fight along side hezbollah if there is a ground invasion. thus far the lebanese army hasn't fought israel. i think they were trying to avoid antogonizing the israelis. but the israelis attacked lebanese military bases anyway, killing several officers while they slept. once again, the israel government seems to be missing the obvious, if you attack groups other than hezbollah, you're just going to increase hezbollah's support and influence.
i still don't see how this offensive can possibly serve israel's interests in either the short or long term. they haven't rescued any soldiers, more missiles are hitting northern israel than have in years, and all of lebanon feels like a victim at their hands, including the people who used to be opposed to hezbollah in the government.
