"You insist on having nuclear weapons," we should say. "Go ahead. It’s a terrible idea, but we can’t stop you. We would, however, like your leaders to view the enclosed DVD of 'The Godfather.' Please pay particular attention to the scene in which Don Corleone makes grudging peace with a man — the head of a rival crime family — who ordered the killing of his oldest son."this hard-edged automatic response approach to foreign policy has an inherent appeal to it. rather than getting into the complexities of the various countries why not deal in simple ultimatums with clear consequences spelled out?
In that scene, Don Corleone says, "I forgo my vengeance for my dead son, for the common good. But I have selfish reasons." The welfare of his youngest son, Michael, is on his mind.
"I am a superstitious man," he continues. "And so if some unlucky accident should befall my youngest son, if some police officer should accidentally shoot him, or if he should hang himself in his cell, or if my son is struck by a bolt of lightening, then I will blame some of the people here. That I could never forgive."
If Iran is bound and determined to have nuclear weapons, let it. The elimination of American opposition on this issue would open the way to genuine normalization between our two nations. It might even convince the Iranians that their country can flourish without nuclear weapons.
But this should also be made clear to Tehran: If a dirty bomb explodes in Milwaukee, or some other nuclear device detonates in Baltimore or Wichita, if Israel or Egypt or Saudi Arabia should fall victim to a nuclear "accident," Iran should understand that the United States government will not search around for the perpetrator. The return address will be predetermined, and it will be somewhere in Iran.
the problem is that koppel's formulation only would work if there were only two actors in the world, the u.s. and iran. but the world isn't like that. iran has plenty of enemies that aren't the u.s. upon hearing koppel's ultimatum, radical sunni groups would run to their maps to figure out where the hell milwaukee is. if there's ever an actual industrial accident in israel, the israelis would have no incentive to call it an accident. instead, they would just sit back and watch the u.s. go after iran, one of their worst enemies.
because there are other actors other than iran and the u.s., any announced rule would immediately get people to try to game the system for their own ends. and because the u.s. has preannounced that it will assume iran is to blame for any nuclear incident, that means that any other mischief-making party would be guaranteed to get away scot-free.
the net result of all of this would be an increased incentive for nuclear weapons to be used, not less. maybe iran would be checked by the threat, but in the process we would be giving a get-out-of-jail free card to everyone else. and that would make the world an even more dangerous place.
