i haven't posted about the assassination of pierre gemayel yet. i was waiting for the smoke to clear so i could get some perspective on the matter. well, perspective isn't really coming. but i've at least reached these conclusions:
(1) aside from the assassins themselves (including whoever they work for), no one knows who killed gemayel.
(2) lots of people will nevertheless insist that syria was behind it, as syria gets blamed for everything bad that happens in lebanon.
(3) much of right blogistan will ridicule anyone who doesn't jump on the syria-did-it bandwagon.
(4) the assassination, regardless who did it, will ultimately hurt syrian interests.
(5) the support that hezbollah gained among christian and sunni lebanese during last summer's israeli attack on lebanon is now over.
(6) eventually someone will point to #5 and claim that means that israel was behind the assassination.
actually, the best analysis of the situation is here. i can say that with absolute certainty. (via explananda)
