Tuesday, February 06, 2007

possibilities

an iranian diplomat was "kidnapped" by people who had iraqi defense ministry credentials. i'm not sure what this means, but here's my list of possibilities:

1. the kidnappers really were from the iraqi defense ministry and their actions reflected the policy of the iraqi government.

2. the kidnappers really were from the iraqi defense ministry acting at the behest of a faction in the government.

3. the kidnappers were insurgents using stolen credentials and are trying to poison iraqi-iranian relations and/or antagonize iran.

4. the kidnappers were acting at the behest of the u.s. as part of bush's campaign to poison iraqi-iranian relations and/or antagonize iran.

5. the mossad did it.1

#1 is not very likely because the kidnappers were pursued by iraqi security forces after the abduction. #2 through #4 are all quite possible. iran has concluded that #4 is the answer.

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1- no self-respecting middle eastern conspiracy theory can not include the involvement of the mossad. it's the law. after reading these things for a while you start thinking that nothing would ever happen in the entire region without some devious mossad agent pulling the strings. not that the mossad doesn't exist and doesn't, you know, do stuff. but i just don't think it is a serious possibility in this case. no doubt there are others who disagree.