Sunday, June 03, 2007

a prediction

comprehensive immigration reform won't happen in this congress. not because there's a faction who wants the status quo. pretty much everyone agrees that current u.s. immigration law are messed up. it's just that everyone sees a completely different problem and the different parties pushing for reform are pursuing mutually incompatible agendas.

so while everyone demands "reform", once the details of reform take shape, a large number of people who led the reform rallying cry will decide that the status quo is actually better and work to defeat the new measure. indeed, that's already starting to happen.

so immigration reform will not happen. instead once the legislation is declared dead, it will shift to a fight over who's to blame for its death.