psychoanalyzing the veep

maybe you've seen the above cheney video. it's been bouncing around the internet much of this week. i've seen it on a lot of blogs, it is remarkable just how prescient cheney seems to be when talking about the consequences of toppling saddam hussein.

but whenever i see it i wonder, what happened? was he just saying that stuff in 1994 to cover his ass when many people thought that not continuing to baghdad was a mistake? did he really believe what he said and then change his mind later? or did he believe that all along and is now lying when he defends the decision to topple saddam in 2003?

i think i know what many conservatives would stay. i can practically write it myself: it's the middle one, they will say. cheney changed his mind and "what happened" was 9/11.

that may be the typical answer, but it's also a non-answer. in fact, the more i think about it, the less sense it makes. 9/11 didn't make any of the results predicted by cheney in the above video less likely to happen. but 9/11 did make the consequences of those negative results worse (that is, more serious for the u.s.), not better.