flat

"Bush's Approval Rating Returns to Low 30s" says the headline of yesterday's gallup poll report. but that's not really true. the headline is referring to the that that gallup's latest rating approval number, 32% is a drop from his rating of 36% last month. but check out the chart that accompanies the poll report:


the gallup poll has a margin of error of +/-3%. since the beginning of this year the president's approval rating has "ranged" between 29% and 37%, only two points greater than the 6 percentage point wobble you would expect from any poll with a 3% margin of error. (his disapproval score shows the same eight point spread (58% to 66%)).

in other words, bush's scores are not rising or sinking very much at all. overall his ratings have remained remarkably flat. his four point "drop" since last month is probably not a drop at all, but rather just the noise you would expect from any sampling method. bush's "actual" approval among the u.s. populace doesn't seem to change much from month to month. it looks to me like he's remained at around 33% all along. his ratings didn't "return to the low 30s" because they never really left.