there's been a bit of speculation that the navy's decision to try to shoot down the crashing spy satellite is going to be used as a cover for a missile defense test. (and that's apparently how the russians see it).
anyway, there's a few reasons why this "test" really isn't valid test of the missile defense program's actual interception capabilities. unlike an incoming missile, the satellite is coming down on a well established trajectory, calculated over the past few weeks from its known position and orbit. also the satellite is a big bigger than a missile (the satellite is about the size of a school bus). in other words, there are factors here that make a successful test more likely than it would with a real test, where the system would have to instantly calculate a missile's speed, position and trajectory, and would have to hit a warhead-sized target, not a bus.
now it seems that the attempt to shoot the satellite is being delayed due to weather. so if we ever do put our security into the hands of a missile defense system, i just hope it's a nice sunny day when the missile attack comes.
