The lengthy Democratic primary contest bodes well for Republican chances of holding the White House, a new poll suggests.i'm guessing that some of the respondents' answers may be an empty threat. when i hear clinton supporters say they won't vote for obama in the general or obama supporters say they won't vote for clinton in the general, i'm not really hearing a prediction of their future activities as much as a warning. they're telling me "you better vote for my candidate or else we'll lose in november." in other words, it's just part of their campaign pitch. when push comes to shove, i doubt if all of them will follow through with the threat.
As Democratic Senators Barack Obama of Illinois and Hillary Clinton of New York slug it out for the nomination, many of their supporters -- at least in Pennsylvania, site of the next major primary -- aren't committed to the party's ticket in November, according to a Franklin & Marshall College Poll.
Among Obama supporters, 20 percent said they would vote for Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the Republican nominee, if Clinton beats their candidate for the nomination. Among Clinton supporters, 19 percent said they would support McCain in November if Obama is the Democratic nominee.
and yet, the longer you repeat a line like that to yourself, the more entrenched it becomes in your mind. the longer this primary fight drags on, the more hostility builds up among democratic partisans against each other's candidate. thus, the longer this thing continues, the "i'll vote for mccain" threat probably becomes less empty for more people.
which is why i keep hoping that someone will get a block of super delegates to commit to obama so he can clinch it and end the race. as i mentioned before, i favor obama over clinton, but that's not the only reason i am hoping for a pro-obama super delegate block, it's because i think that at this point clinton can't win. if the situation were reversed, i would be wishing for a pro-clinton block of supers to emerge. at this point, i want this to be over more than i want either candidate to win the nomination.
(via rossi by email)