two days ago i thought obama would probably win texas and that ohio could go either way. now i think that texas could go either way on the popular vote (though its pretty clear that obama will win the most delegates given where the delegate-rich districts are) and clinton will probably win ohio. if you're looking at the delegate numbers there really isn't a significantly difference between prediction A and prediction B. but there is a major difference in how tonights results will affect the overall race; it will determine whether clinton is likely to drop out tomorrow or whether she will fight on to the floor of the convention.
prediction B would be a real mess. i don't think PA will be decisive either, so unless we have a drop out neither camp is likely to get enough pledged delegates to avoid superdelegates from deciding the nomination. that used to be a clinton trump card, but now its a lot less clear who most supers favor. clinton will also probably try to seat the florida and michigan delegation (because it would add to her delegate count) even though that would be a total mess and could seriously hurt the party's chances in the general election.
i also used to think that the powers that be in the democratic party know all this and would be putting a ton of pressure on the candidates to resolve this contest just after today's primary. my theory was that so long as the republicans were beating up each other, there was no harm in having a contested democratic primary at the same time. but now that mccain's essentially clinched it, he gets to raise and bank money for the general election whereas clinton and obama are spending money as it comes in the door. (not to mention all the campaign jabs clinton and obama fling at each other, that mccain can pick up and use for himself). ironically, it is both campaigns' enormous fund raising success that makes this campaign likely to continue. the two democrats are spending a ton of money, but they're still both outraising mccain, at least right now. which means the financial incentive to end this thing is less of a factor.
