i haven't been commenting on the situation in lebanon. mostly because, what was there to say? but these last few days i was wondering what hezbollah's ultimate plan was: was their advance a coup attempt or just sending a message to the government that "we won't be pushed around"?
while neither option would be good for lebanon, an attempted coup would be a total disaster, risking reigniting the country's civil war. but luckily, it now appears that it was just a show of force. rather than attempting to take over the country, hezbollah seems to be working for the more limited goal of getting the government to lay off its telecom network. if the government backs down on that (and i expect it will), it make the prospect of getting the group to disarm (as required by the ta'if agreement) ever more distant.
