technicalities like this are getting lost in the violence of the gaza campaign, but mahmoud abbas' term as palestinian president expired this week. at least that was when it was supposed to expire when he was originally elected. the president has a four year term and he was elected four years ago, therefore it's over. that seems pretty straightforward, doesn't it?
except it isn't. abu mazen argues that he gets another year because either a 2005 statute and/or a 2007 presidential decree, both of which say that future presidential elections will be held concurrent with parliamentary elections. because the next parliamentary election isn't supposed to happen until 2010, this effectively would buy abbas a fifth year in office as he would be expected to stick around until a new election is held.
and yet, that statute and decree arguably violate the terms of the basic law (which is effectively the PA's constitution). the basic law fixes the president's term at four years, any fifth year in the term is contrary to that provision. so the law setting the new date is arguably unconstitutional. or at least it would be if there was a clear system for judicial review and if the two branches of government didn't currently control completely different territories and if they weren't in a state of war with each other for all practical purposes. (there's a good description of the legal mess here (pdf). my favorite part is question and answer #5)
the matter could also probably be resolved if israel, the united states and europe intervened. but they have no interest in doing that, especially since the default position in the absence of involvement would be for abbas to remain in office for another year, which is what all of those parties want to happen anyway. sure, hamas will claim that he's no longer prez (they already have), but israel and the west aren't too concerned about that or what the basic law says. there's no incentive to get involved in this one at all.
i'm not even sure there will be a palestinian election next year either. an election requires israeli cooperation. whatever tepid desire israel ever had for palestinian democracy evaporated when they saw the results of 2006. i'd certainly be surprised if israel lets hamas take part at all this time around.
