wow, can kadima really pull it off? originally i thought that likud would trounce them. even when the polls started narrowing over the last few days, i still thought they wouldn't narrow enough for kadima to make up the gap. but the exit polls suggest that the undecideds are breaking for livni.
maybe all the press about yisrael beitenu's rise scared people back to kadima. or maybe lieberman sucked too many crazy rightwingers away from likud. or maybe both. or maybe i'm just bad at predicting these things.
but even if kadima wins, bibi can still end up being prime minister. the team of likud-yisrael beitenu will be about the same size as kadima-labor, which leaves the smaller parties as the kingmakers. it would be delicious irony if the two arab parties that lieberman unsuccessfully tried to ban got to decide which faction rules. (it's pretty unlikely that will happen though. the most deliciously ironic stuff never does)
UPDATE: as i've trolled around the israeli blogisphere, it looks like many of the smaller parties are pledging their support to likud. if the exit polls hold up, livni will get the first chance to form a government because she's the head of the party with the plurality. but if these pledges hold up, her efforts will fail and israel will end up with the bibi-led crazy rightwing regime i was predicting before the election took place.
