i moved to PA ten years ago. a few years later, my congressional district was gerrymandered out of existence and i became the constituent of jim gerlach. ever since then, i've been hoping to get rid of the guy. lois murphy narrowly lost to him in 2004 and 2006. what's-his-name lost by a slightly wider margin in 2008. prevailing wisdom is that the best time to take out an incumbent congressman is in his first term or two (after that they become entrenched and all but unbeatable). notwithstanding the overall blue shift of this state, i was resigning myself to be stuck with gerlach forever.
but now it looks like i may finally be rid of him. the odds of him clearing the republican primary and then being elected governor are long (though it may depend upon who the dems come up for their candidate. governor rendell is term limited out), and my gut still tells me that without the power of incumbency the republicans can't hold this district.
maybe i'm wrong, but this does give me hope. i haven't had three democrats representing me in congress since i had durban-braun-rush in 1999.