as of this writing (the bill cleared the cloture vote in the senate, but has yet to have the up-or-down vote), the repeal of don't ask don't tell seems to be all but certain.
the problem is the bill isn't exactly assuring that gays may serve openly in the military. instead, all it's doing is striking title X, section 654 from the u.s. code. in other words, the bill would simply erase the codification of the don't ask don't tell statute that was passed in 1993 without putting anything in its place.
prior to 1993, there was no statute saying that gays couldn't openly serve in the military. the u.s. code was silent on the issue. but even so gays were barred from the military by DOD policy. just because the DADT statute is repealed, nothing would stop the DOD from doing the same thing again.
well, the president could by executive order. but the problem with that is that when we get a new president, that new president can issue new executive orders. which means that even if obama allows gays to openly serve now, there would be no guarantee that his successor wouldn't put a new ban in place. and that would not require an act of congress, just the president's signature.
