Monday, November 21, 2011

arab fall

has anyone else noticed that the "successful" arab springs are getting worse? tunisia was first and they removed ben ali fairly quickly and with few casualties. then came egypt, which took a little less time but was much more violent before mubarak left power. next came libya, which started as a peaceful protest in february but by march had descended into a full-scale civil war that didn't end until the fall of sirte on october 20th.

the later the arab spring started, the harder it was. and that patterns seems to be holding in the post-removal-of-dictator phase as well, at least so far. tunisia's transition into a post-revolutionary government has been going the best. they had a free and fair election with no major problems and there have been few clashes between the people and authorities since ben ali fled.

in egypt the protests continue, now against SCAF, the military council that took over after mubarak left and seems to be angling to hold on to power. and SCAF is violently cracking down on the protesters, just like the mubarak government.

it's only been 2 months since the civil war in libya ended, and it was only the other day that the last qadhafi was captured. but already the transitional government is paralyzed with infighting and they have at least one armed faction, the zintan militia, that isn't willing to submit to the authority of the new central government. a second civil war is a real possibility.

three isn't much of a pattern. but it does look like the later the arab spring, the harder it gets. if the pattern holds, things really don't look good for syria.