Tuesday, January 31, 2012

iran and israel

stephen walt splashes some cold water on bergman article from sunday's NYT magazine. really all walt is asking is that we keep in mind the motives of the people being quoted. people have been predicting that israel is about to attack iran every year for the past decade. as i said earlier, an israeli strike on iran is more likely in 2012 than it has been before (but that's more about iraqi airspace than anything going on israel or iran).

but i still think it's more likely than not that it won't happen. there's just too much of a risk of blowback. and even though the netanyahu government seems immune to blowback worries (they trashed their relationship with their best ally in the region just to avoid saying "i'm sorry"). but the blowback potential from an iran attack is a lot worse than the other stuff that bibi has faced before.