Friday, March 23, 2012

last stand or else what?

once again, i don't understand newt gingrich. let's imagine that, despite what the polls say, newt somehow pulls off a large win in louisiana. even if he swept the caucus, he would get at most 46 delegates, only 20 of which would be "pledged" (and because many of those delegates are apportioned proportionately, its pretty unlikely he would get all of them, even with a large win). but even if he did get all of them, that would send his total all the way up to 181, which is still 80 delegates behind rick santorum and almost 400 behind mitt romney. even with a decisive win in LA under his belt, he still is going to lose the nomination.

but wait! what about that momentum-thingamajig? if newt pulls a major upset win then he would prove... um, what exactly? that he can win another southern state that is pretty different from the rest of the country? at best he gets branded as the dude who can steal southern delegates from rick santorum, but still is going to lose the nomination.

there is no plausible scenario in which gingrich wins the nomination. even if he blows louisiana away, gingrich is still going to lose. actually, i don't think it's likely that santorum will win either, but he, at least, has an outside shot if romney's campaign implodes for some reason. so that explains why rick is trying to hang on. if nothing else, santorum has shown enough support to possibly negotiate some concessions in return for bowing out.

but gingrich's campaign has no point at all. so why is he wasting his time doing it? even the "this is a glorified book tour" theory doesn't explain it. gingrich has already raised his profile. a long drawn out humiliating defeat isn't going to push up his amazon stats.