i actually think that paul ryan has a fairly good shot at being the next president of the united states.
ADDING (8/13/2012): nate silver gives ryan only a 4.5% chance of becoming the next president. his methodology doesn't take into account the GOP's habit of giving the nomination to whoever is next in line1, and my general impression that the public is more likely to switch parties after a second term presidency.2
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1- admittedly this year's everybody-gets-to-be-a-frontrunner GOP primary makes the "next in line" a little hard to determine. but i think the young attractive popular with the press veep candidate has good shot of being viewed as next.
2- maybe nate should look into that. and if he does, i will take all the credit for the idea even though i think there is almost no chance he will ever read this.
ADDING (8/13/2012): nate silver gives ryan only a 4.5% chance of becoming the next president. his methodology doesn't take into account the GOP's habit of giving the nomination to whoever is next in line1, and my general impression that the public is more likely to switch parties after a second term presidency.2
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1- admittedly this year's everybody-gets-to-be-a-frontrunner GOP primary makes the "next in line" a little hard to determine. but i think the young attractive popular with the press veep candidate has good shot of being viewed as next.
2- maybe nate should look into that. and if he does, i will take all the credit for the idea even though i think there is almost no chance he will ever read this.
