Tuesday, May 28, 2013


i have a hard time imagining how hezbollah's gamble can pay off. it's open assistance of the syrian government is just going to make it easier for other outside groups and states to support the rebels. (maybe it already has?). if assad loses, hezbollah has bet on the wrong horse and forever damaged its reputation with the overall arab world, making its future funding sources a lot more iffy.

while it might still be possible for assad to survive this (i'm still betting against it), i don't think it's likely that he will ever be as in control as he was two years ago. in fact, one of the scenarios for assad's survival involves syria splitting up, with assad or his successor controlling damascus, the coast, and a narrow swath of land between them running northwest from damascus. if that happens, hezbollah will find itself as the sponsor of a rump state with little international legitimacy, and without the arms smuggling corridor from iran.