Thursday, September 18, 2014

On Scotland

I probably said this somewhere already but I predict that the Scots will narrowly vote to stay in the U.K.

I also think that if I am wrong and they vote to leave, they will take a big economic hit for it (that is, the various naysayers who predict economic problems for Scotland if it becomes independent are basically right).

And I think if Scotland becomes independent it will end up out of the EU for at least a few years. Scottish EU membership would have to be approved by all current EU members. Several EU members have every reason to veto Scottish membership because that would show their own succession-prone regions the economic costs of independence. Places like Catalonia are already watching Scotland closely. By blocking Scotland from the EU, Spain strengthens the argument to keep its own country together.

And finally, if Scotland becomes independent, it will end up using the Pound Sterling, at least for the first few years, notwithstanding English objections.