Wednesday, November 05, 2014

This really only means a 2 year majority

My favorite part of any American election is watching the winning side wildly overstate its' relevance. Does this herald a "100 year majority" for the GOP in the House? I'm guessing no. In fact, I doubt their majority will survive past 2022, the first election that will be held under the 2020 redistricting, if it even survives for that long.

Republicans won an election yesterday. Congratulations! They did win. The win was under favorable conditions (the map favored them, historically the president's party loses in midterm that falls in the sixth year of the presidency, the president's approval ratings are low), but it looks like they even beat the expectations that took into account those favorable conditions. Still, it really doesn't tell us anything about what will happen in 2018, 2036, or 2112.

Time passes, shit happens, the American public has an extremely short attention span. In the heady days of 2003, when Bush was hanging up his mission accomplished banner, no one would have predicted the blowout wins that Democrats pulled off just three years later in 2006, or the way they expanded the electoral map in 2008. When you've just won big, it feels like a tectonic shift in the political sentiment of the country, even when the win is consistent with a longstanding pattern in American elections.

(via Memeorandum)