Friday, March 20, 2015

If you are not in Mesopotamia, you probably don't have to fear the Islamic State

This is what I have been saying for a while. The Islamic State poses no real threat to the United States. Or, for that matter, most countries in the world. It is a real threat to people in Syria and Iraq, and probably also Lebanon and Jordan. You can also argue it threatens Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. If you buy that all of the claimed affiliates really are part of the same Islamic State, then it also threatens Libya, Egypt, and maybe Tunisia.

But I think that is about it. Every other country in the world does not face a serious threat from ISIS. I don't even think there is a good case that it is a serious threat to Israel.

I also think that the Islamic State, as an entity that holds and governs actual territory, is pretty much doomed. They can do a lot of damage in the short-term, but I don't think they can even sustain what they have for much longer. The only people who think ISIS is going to conquer the world or even just the Arab world are members of ISIS and people who are trying to use the ISIS bogeyman to scare others into supporting some policy.

UPDATE: Okay, add Yemen to the "claimed affiliates" list  Sheesh, I picked the wrong day to make that point.