Wednesday, March 25, 2015

The prospect of lower oil prices if there is a deal with Iran is another reason the deal probably won't happen

I think this is another strike against the prospect that a nuclear deal with Iran will be finalized. Sure, even lower oil prices will benefit most Americans (not the ones in the oil domestic oil industry, but just about everyone else), but it would be another nail in the coffin for Russia's economy. So that means that Russia, a member of the P5+1 that is currently trying to hammer out a deal with Iran, would have a major incentive for a deal not to happen.

The people opposed to an Iran deal in the U.S. are going to ignore the benefits of lower oil prices because their opposition is about decades of both legitimate grievances and demonizations of Iran that have piled up since the 1979 revolution, as well as, about perceived threats to Israel. I do not think that most of the opposition is based on serious consideration of the costs versus the benefits of a deal. So while the people who might benefit from low oil prices won't take that into consideration, Russia, a party at the bargaining table, will be well aware of the harm that a deal would cause itself.

So throw that tidbit on the enormous pile of reasons that I deal with Iran on its nuclear program and sanctions will be finalized.