Thursday, April 16, 2015

I ask again: Can any GOP presidential candidate win his home state?

Waaaaay back in June 2011, I noticed that none of the likely Republican presidential candidates were polling ahead of the President in their home state, which did not bode well for the GOP in the 2012 election. The pattern held in the general election when Mitt Romney lost all four states that he could claim as his "home state", plus the home state of his Vice President candidate Paul Ryan.

It's even earlier now in this presidential election cycle but the same pattern seems to be emerging.

Walker polls behind Clinton in Wisconsin.

Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio are behind Clinton in the polls in Florida.

I can't find any Cruz vs. Clinton polls for Texas, but I would guess that Cruz is probably ahead because it's Texas (on the other hand in June 2011 Perry managed to trail Obama in TX, so who knows?)