Sunday, July 12, 2015

These polls do not show that Trump can win

Look, Donald Trump has almost zero chance of getting the Republican nomination. Sure, there have been a few polls showing him in first place. But even if you put aside the fact that each of these polls have a large enough margin of error for several other candidates to be the real leader, you can be in first place in a field of 15 candidates with a relatively low percentage of support. That doesn't mean he will get anywhere when there are fewer alternatives divvying up the anti-Trump vote.

In other words, just because he can get about 15% of Republican primary voters to vote for him when there are so many candidates, each with their own slice of the percentage, doesn't mean he can get a majority of Republican primary voters to vote for him.

On the other hand, I'm really glad that GOP strategists are taking Trump seriously.