Monday, August 10, 2015

Trump's future

I both agree with Josh Marshall's argument that Trump's recent alleged missteps are not going to hurt him in the polls of GOP primary voters, I do think that his campaign will eventually collapse before the GOP convention (actually I think the Trump bubble pop will happen long before, probably within the next month). The question is what will finally do it.

For each one you can argue it won't matter, that Trump's supporters don't care about whatever it is that everyone else is horrified that Trump has done. And while I think that is right about each instance, eventually the chatter about Trump as the disaster for the right will sink into the minds of his supporters. At some point that will cause a dip in his polls, which will quickly turn into a stampede away from his camp. I don't know when that tipping point will be reached, but I am convinced it will. After that, Trump will still have some support, but not very much and he will be firmly stuck in the back of the pack, railing about political correctness or making ineffective threats of a third party run until he decides to cut it quits. The only question is whether Trump will cut it quits when he reaches the point that most candidates would, or not.