Sunday, March 06, 2016

538 Delegate count tool

I just discovered this today: Republicans/Democrats. It's a rare useful way at visualizing exactly how far or behind the various presidential candidates are in the primary that focuses on delegate count, rather than how many states were won or lost. In other words, it focuses on what actually leads to the nomination as opposed to the bullshit bandied about in most political reporting.

The short answer is that only Trump and Clinton are on meeting their targets to win the nomination. Sanders is 15% short of where he should be, which means he could still conceivably catch up if he starts over-performing in upcoming primaries and caucuses. Cruz (only 67% of the delegates he needs to stay on target so far) and Rubio (only 42%) are so far behind I don't know how they hope to overperform enough to close the gap. Kasich isn't even on the chart (he only has 35 delegates, 93 behind that loser Rubio, so his shot is so long I guess it's not even worth measuring)