Monday, April 11, 2016

"Clinton downplays odds of a contested democrat convention"

AKA Clinton accurately states that there is no plausible scenario in which "neither side wins an outright majority of delegates."

This is so stupid. On the Republican side, nine different people have accrued delegates, with four of them (Trump, Cruz, Kasich and Rubio) each with delegate totals in the hundreds. Trump has a good shot of getting an outright majority before the convention, it is also quite plausible that he no one will get an outright majority because Kasich + Rubio are collectively sitting on a cache of more than 300 delegates.

On the Democratic side, things are completely different. Only two people have accrued any delegates, Clinton  and Sanders, and all of the remaining delegates will go to one or the other. There are 4,765 delegates in all. When there are an odd number of delegates and they are only going to one side or the other, one of those sides will end up with more delegates than the other.

Clinton wasn't "downplaying the odds" she was pointing out that the situation on the Democratic side is completely different from the situation on the Republican side. There is a plausible scenario that the Republicans might still be fighting over their nominee when they reach their convention. There is no such scenario for the Democrats.