Tuesday, June 07, 2016

Prediction (because I like doing these because why not)

I think Bernie will concede either tonight or tomorrow. That is my prediction whether or not he "wins" California. My scare quotes are there because you don't really win any state in this contest where delegates are divided proportionately. Sander's best shot is that he gets more votes than Clinton in that state while splitting the delegates roughly down the middle, which is simply not good enough when you are as far behind in the delegate count as Bernie is.

Anyway, if I'm wrong and he does not concede by the end of the day tomorrow, I predict he will concede within 24 hours of the DC primary next week. Sanders is virtually certain to "lose" that one and because DC is the last primary once it's over he could no longer claim to be waiting until everyone gets a chance to vote.

Either way, I don't think that Sanders will stay in the contest all the way to the convention.