Thursday, August 18, 2016

Where are the House polls?

It's common wisdom that the Democrats have very little chance of retaking the house this year, even with the Republicans facing a potential electoral disaster with Trump that will probably cost them the Senate. But while there are a ton of presidential polls and some polls of the Senate races, I can barely find any for any of the house races. Real Clear Politics, which is normally the main aggregator of polls, has only two polls of House races, both are for the Ryan-Nehlen GOP primary over WI-1, which is already over. There is not a single poll for the 2016 general election in the House on RCP.

In the last few years, data-driven (i.e. poll-driven) analysis has really taken off, with its proponents bashing the traditional wisdom and gut instinct analysis that has governed political commentary in the past. But if there are no real polls for the 435 House races this year, do we have anything but a gut instinct? Why aren't these races being polled? (Or if they are being polled, why aren't sites like RCP posting the poll results?)