Monday, October 10, 2016

My metric for overconfidence

Everyone has their own way of deciding when the election is so lopsided it's basically over. For this presidential race, mine is whenever the 538 model has Clinton's chances of winning Texas exceeds Trump's chances of winning the presidency. We're not there yet, but today it's really close.

Of course I know this is just an arbitrary metric to use. The 538 model could be wrong, even a small (sub-Texas-for-Hillary) chance of winning is still an actual chance, why pick Clinton's chance in TX instead of, say, AL, etc. But arbitrary or not, once Trump national chances falls below Clinton's Texas chances, I'm going to get to as close to a sense of certainty as is possible in one of these elections.