Defenders of Trump's decision to break the Iran nuclear deal seem to think that Trump will prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons by unleashing harsh sanctions against the country. But can the Trump administration pull off sanctions?
There are reasons to doubt that they can. First, the U.S. has very little trade with Iran. Stopping American companies from investing in Iran will have almost no effect on the Iranian economy.
Second, just about every other country is not on board with Trump's sanction efforts. (Okay Israel is on board, but it has no trade with Iran to cut off). Now that Trump has removed its American competitors from the market, Russia is selling Iran a bunch of new planes. The EU has activated its sanction blocking laws (the same laws that allowed Europeans to continue to trade with Cuba despite the U.S.'s attempts to stop them) to allow its trade with Iran to continue. China has been investing heavily in Iran and has not made any indication that it plans to stop just because Trump is breaking the nuclear deal. It doesn't look like Trump's unilateral Iran sanctions will have much bite.
Third, it is not clear that the Trump administration is capable of maintaining a tough sanction regime on Iran. The Trump administration has eviscerated the State Department. While a lot of sanction enforcement comes from the Treasury Department, the DOS has several offices that make sure American sanctions are effective. The loss of personnel in State makes me wonder if they can effectively enforce any new Iranian sanctions.
Finally, Trump is just too addicted to handing out favors to maintain a consistent enough sanction regime. This week, Trump tweeted that he would give relief to ZTE.
Put those four things together and it is not clear that Trump is capable of hurting Iran in any meaningful way with sanctions.
There are reasons to doubt that they can. First, the U.S. has very little trade with Iran. Stopping American companies from investing in Iran will have almost no effect on the Iranian economy.
Second, just about every other country is not on board with Trump's sanction efforts. (Okay Israel is on board, but it has no trade with Iran to cut off). Now that Trump has removed its American competitors from the market, Russia is selling Iran a bunch of new planes. The EU has activated its sanction blocking laws (the same laws that allowed Europeans to continue to trade with Cuba despite the U.S.'s attempts to stop them) to allow its trade with Iran to continue. China has been investing heavily in Iran and has not made any indication that it plans to stop just because Trump is breaking the nuclear deal. It doesn't look like Trump's unilateral Iran sanctions will have much bite.
Third, it is not clear that the Trump administration is capable of maintaining a tough sanction regime on Iran. The Trump administration has eviscerated the State Department. While a lot of sanction enforcement comes from the Treasury Department, the DOS has several offices that make sure American sanctions are effective. The loss of personnel in State makes me wonder if they can effectively enforce any new Iranian sanctions.
Finally, Trump is just too addicted to handing out favors to maintain a consistent enough sanction regime. This week, Trump tweeted that he would give relief to ZTE.
What is ZTE? It is a Chinese telecom company that was caught doing business in Iran in violation of U.S. sanctions. The U.S. caught them and fined the company, but ZTE failed to pay so it is barred from doing business with American companies. But Trump wants to give ZTE relief, meaning letting them do business with U.S. companies without paying the fine, effectively forgiving ZTE for violating U.S. sanctions, apparently in exchange for China's agreement to fund a Trump resort in Indonesia. It looks like anyone who wants to violate U.S. sanctions against Iran or anyone else just needs to do a favor for a Trump business. That kind of corruption effectively blasts any number of potential holes in whatever sanction regime Trump imposes on Iran.President Xi of China, and I, are working together to give massive Chinese phone company, ZTE, a way to get back into business, fast. Too many jobs in China lost. Commerce Department has been instructed to get it done!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 13, 2018
Put those four things together and it is not clear that Trump is capable of hurting Iran in any meaningful way with sanctions.
