Friday, July 12, 2019

The easiest way to defeat Biden in the primary

I never wanted Sanders to run in the first place this year, so I am definitely biased, but I really think if the goal is to make sure that Biden is not the nominee, Sanders should drop out. I'm not sure where all of Sander's supporters would go if he left the race. I suspect a chunk would go to Warren, and the rest would spread out among the others. Biden, I suspect, would get very little Bernie people. Spreading that 13% would completely change the primary race. And because Biden's entire campaign is based on the delusion that he is a candidate who can draw a lot of support, if he falls out of the top tier, it could crater his entire campaign.

LATER: I guess I should have looked at the "second choice" polling before I published my uninformed suspicions. So much for the premise of this post:
Among Sanders's supporters, 26 percent said they supported Biden as a second choice, followed by Warren at 16 percent and Harris at 7 percent.