Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Bibi may not survive, but the next Israeli government will be on the right

I think a much overlooked example of racism inherent in Israeli political culture is the long-standing tradition, followed by both left and right, of not formally including any Arab parties in the governing coalition.1 It is simply unacceptable to Israelis across the political spectrum to let Arabs hold any cabinet posts. All major Israeli parties have been willing to not have their party gain control to avoid including Arab parties in their coalitions.

Because Arab parties often 8-12 seats in the Knesset (which has 120 total seats), this means that 6-10% of the seats are out of play when the winning party in an Israeli election attempts to assemble a governing coalition. This gives an enormous structural disadvantage to the left who might otherwise be able to use Arab parties to get over 50% of the seats.  That, plus the striking rightward swing of the Israeli public over the past decade or two means that Israeli governments can only swing between the extreme right and the center-right.

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1- Arab parties have been informally involved on occasion. For example, Yizthak Rabin used a "confidence and supply" scheme where he got the Arab parties to support him in any confidence votes in return for promises of funding of the Arab parties' priorities. But the point of that scheme was to use Arabs to stop the government from falling while at the same time avoiding formally including Arabs in the government or allowing Arab parties to hold any cabinet posts.