Thursday, December 19, 2019

Everyone now thinks a Democratic House is a done deal

The number of Congressional Republicans not running for reelection next year (here's another one) really just highlights the fact that the GOP does not think it can win back the House in November. Despite all their bluster about how impeachment will hurt the Democrats or that "Trump District Democrats" (Democrats who won their seat in 2018 in Districts that went for Trump in 2016) are in danger, resignations speak much louder than words. All the Republicans deciding to leave Congress in 2020 shows that they don't believe their party's own rhetoric.

What is really remarkable is it wasn't that long ago (as recent as a year and a half ago) that prevailing wisdom said the Democrats could not win a majority in the House. The House is so gerrymandered plus the urban concentration of Democratic voters allegedly rendered a House majority an impossibly long shot. Then 2018 happened and it was viewed as just the usual off-year backlash-against-the-President phenomenon, not changing the underlying fundamentals that made a Democratic House effectively impossible in the long term. One year later, no one is talking like that anymore.