Thursday, February 13, 2020

Bernie's path is still pretty narrow

If the current pattern holds (and it may not. The IA caucuses and NH primary are far from representative of the remaining 50+ state and territory races) Sanders will end up with a plurality of delegates but not a clear majority. Unless a bunch of people drop out, the other delegates will be scattered among several so-called "centrist" candidates, who are all anti-Bernie. So the likely outcome (again only if the current pattern from non-representative states holds) would be Sanders forcing the Democrats into a contested convention, which will immediately pick someone else to be the nominee.

That's the irony surrounding all the vitriol I see online from Sanders supporters towards Warren. I guess they "snake" Warren and harass her supporters because they see Warren as a rival for the same votes. But Warren delegates might be the only delegates who would go to Sanders over Bloomberg (or whoever) in a contested convention. If Sanders goes into the nomination with only a plurality, he needs a candidate with her own delegates who might consider moving to the Sanders camp after the first ballot. To win the nomination in a contested convention scenario, Sanders needs someone else to bring more progressive delegates into the convention.