Sunday, February 09, 2020

Why this post-Iowa Biden Narrative?

This will surprise no one who reads this blog but I don't want Joe Biden to be the Democratic nominee. Before the race began I was hoping he would not run and watching him run has made me even more depressed about his chances as an opponent to Trump. But I gotta say that all this talk about the Biden campaign "collapsing" because of his fourth-place finish in Iowa is really surprising. Joe had never polled that well in Iowa or New Hampshire. Both states are really white, and Biden's big strength is his (somewhat inexplicable to me) strong popularity among black Democratic voters. I thought everyone who was closing watching this race knew that Biden was not going to do well in the first two states, but his strength is in the states that come after that, places like South Carolina and Nevada, where the minority vote is a real factor.

So is everyone feigning surprise about his Iowa performance so they can write the big comeback story after South Carolina? Or was Biden's clear weakness in the first two states not as well known as I thought?