Friday, April 03, 2020

How's it gonna end?

I've been trying to figure out how exactly it will work when all the quarantine/stay-at-home orders end. Will there just be a day that we can suddenly all go to crowded bars? Will it be phased in gradually? But how will that work? What will open first? And how will we know the initial forays into social non-distancing won't trigger a renewed outbreak?

The only scenario I can imagine that I can play out in my head in a plausible and safe manner is if we have a vaccine. The remain at home order would only apply to the unvaccinated and as people get the vaccine (or get a test showing they have the antibodies to fight off COVID-19) they are allowed to leave home. But a vaccine could be 18 months away. How the hell will we keep this up that long?

What if we can't keep it up that long? What is the other scenario for the end?