Monday, September 21, 2020

You can't convince Republicans to not fill Ginsburg's seat unless you give them a good reason to keep it open

The only scenario I see where the Ginsburg seat is not filled by President Trump is if the Democrats immediately announce that if the seat is filled before inauguration day, they will pack the Court by adding 4 seats to the Supreme Court if Biden wins and Democrats control Congress in the upcoming election.
Republicans already had a 5-4 majority on the Court before Ginsburg died. If they "give that seat to Biden" by not voting on a nominee before inauguration day they would still have a 5-4 majority at least in the near term. Some Republicans might view that as a better deal than having a 7-6 minority.

Look, Republicans don't care about hypocrisy. Why should they? If the last four years has taught us anything is that there really is no price to pay for being a hypocrite. Throwing the statements Republicans made during the Merrick Gartland fiasco has no real chance of getting anywhere. Republicans are more focused on power, so make the fight about power. What would they rather have? A continued majority on the Court or a Democratic power play that would fatally undermine the prospect of any Supreme Court majority in the near future? Give them that choice and maybe we will get somewhere. All we need is a small handful of Senators to waiver for that to work.

Well, we also need a clear majority of Democrats to publicly commit to a serious Judicial reform. I think that might be the hardest hurdle of all.