Over the years I have signed up for email newsletters from various foreign policy groups/publications. Usually the blast emails list links for a half dozen articles, each covering a different topic about a different area of the world. This week, the articles are almost all about Afghanistan. Not just about Afghanistan, they seem to all be about alarmists predictions about what will happen after the U.S. leaves.
Honestly, I don't understand how the overwhelming position of the foreign policy establishment is that the U.S. must stay in Afghanistan forever no matter what. Although lots of commentators talk about the dangers of losing, there is no sense of what winning means or when it could ever happen. Other than vague and pro forma nods to things like "building Afghan society", a vision for success is almost completely absent.
I'm not expert, let's be clear. I don't know any of the languages of Afghanistan and everything I know about the country are from pretty mainstream and accessible articles for an American who is interested but hasn't spent years studying the country. Maybe that makes me too ignorant to know what I'm talking about, or maybe it gives me a fresher outsider perspective. But whenever I read these articles from self-proclaimed "experts" on American policy I am just struck by how bull headed they all seem to be. The reason they want the U.S. military to remain in Afghanistan is because they want the U.S. military to remain in Afghanistan. That's the goal. At best, it's a simple sunk cost fallacy. But even that might be giving them too much credit. They obsess about the dire consequences of an American exit (some of those consequences might even be true) but give zero consideration to the dire consequences of the continued U.S. presence or a war with no discernible end.
Also I wonder how many can read Dari or Pashto.
