Wednesday, September 14, 2022

Will mandatory mobilization help?

This article makes it sound like Putin's only hope to win the war in Ukraine is a "mandatory mobilization" (i.e. a nation-wide draft), and that does seem to be the consensus in some circles right now. But is it even too late for that? I am far from an expert on this issue, but drafting civilians into the military isn't immediate. Aside from organizing the draft, Russia would have to train all those civilians to become soldiers, something that would take at least a few months. And they would need someone to train the new soldiers, which means pulling experience troops away from the battlefront to train tens of thousands of new recruits. Can Russia spare doing that?

And what about the cost to the broader economy? So far Russia has weathered international sanctions better than expected. But its long-term economic outlook is pretty bad, and it is already struggling to make weapons and equipment it needs for the war since sanctions have cut off most international suppliers. Pulling a broad swath of working age Russians out of the economy so they can go to basic training is going to strain the economy more, just at a time that the economy can't really take it.