This is the first thing I have read that argues the Democrats now have a structural advantage in the race to control the House. The crux of the argument is that, when you look at how DEM and GOP voters changed since 2020, the Republicans have made small gains with minorities, but losses with suburban voters. Which means that they have gained votes in urban districts where the Democrats will win overwhelmingly even if some voters peel off but lost votes in the swing districts of the suburbs, leading to a net disadvantage in the control of House districts.
I don't know if that theory is true, or if it will play out over future elections. But it is a reminder that as powerful as gerrymandering can be with modern computers, the computer models it is based on all assume that voting patterns in the recent past will remain fixed in the future. That isn't always 100% true.
