Happy new year!
Per my annual tradition, I will now toss a bunch of predictions onto this site, so I can check back at the end of the year and appreciate just how terrible I am at prediction the future. Not that I think I have any particular ability to see the future. But it is fun to get a snap shot of what I expect will happen in the future as of a particulate moment.
As of now, this is what I think 2023 has in store for us:
1. Joseph Biden will announce he is not running for reelection in 2024.
2. Donald Trump will be indicted for at least one crime in 2023.
3. Trump will still be running for President at the end of 2023 (i.e. he will not announce he is no longer running, and he will still be alive)
4. No Supreme Court Justices will leave the Court or announce they are leaving the Court in 2023.
5. Republicans in the House will launch several (2+) investigations into the Biden White House and/or the Biden family, but it will not have any clear impact on Biden's popularity or the Democrats other than exciting Republicans.
6. The Israeli government will fall in 2023, meaning there will either be another Israeli election in 2023 or one will be scheduled during the year.
7. The War in Ukraine will still be raging at the end of 2023.
8. The U.S. will continue to send aid and military supplies to Ukraine at the end of 2023, although a significant portion of the Republican party (at least 40%) will be opposed to that aid.
9. Biden's approval in the 538 Presidential approval average will still be underwater (more disapproval than approval) but slightly better, with at least 45% approval in the average.
10. Ron Desantis will declare a presidential run in 2023 and by the end of the year he will be polling ahead of Trump (use 538 polling average if available).
11. Tayyip Erdoğan will still be President of Turkey (or Türkiye) at the end of 2023, either by winning the Presidential election, cheating in the election, disregarding the election results and insisting he is President, couping his way to stay in office, etc. However he does it, Erdoğan will be in charge.
12. The Supreme Court will not fully adopt the "independent state legislature doctrine" in Moore v. Harper, thus preserving the ability of state Governors and Courts to have a say in the manner of conducting an election. (That said, the NC legislature could still win in that case, But if so, it would be on narrower grounds).
13. Biden will not sign any major legislation in 2023, other than budgetary bills.
14. The U.S. government will not default on its debt in 2023, although the House may try to use the debt ceiling to extract concessions out of Biden and the Democrats.
15. The U.S. government will not shut down in 2023.
16. Rishi Sunak will still be Prime Minister of the U.K.
17. There will be a "really bad" (meaning category 4 or higher) hurricane that will make landfall on the U.S, mainland in 2023.
18. Right wing extremism will continue to be a major issue in the U.S. (that's the intro, not the prediction). There will be at least one mass killings (at least 5 killed or at least 10 injured/killed) by a rightwing extremist and/or racist in 2023.
19. Vladamir Putin will still be in charge of Russia at the end of 2023 even though the war in Ukraine will still be dragging on and there will be rumblings of dissent in Russia, but no serious challenges to his authority.
20. The annual inflation rate in the U.S. will be below 5% by the end of 2023.
21. Elon Musk will no longer be the owner of Twitter at the end of 2023 (note: if Twitter ceases to exist as a social media service, I will still get this right)
22. A Republican will be elected governor of Louisiana in 2023. (The current Democratic governor John Bel Edwards, is term limited)
23. There will be no change in the head of state of any of the five former Soviet Central Asian "stans" (so Tokayev will still lead Kazakhstan, Mirziyoyev will still lead Uzbekistan, Japarov will still lead the Kyrgyz Republic, Rahmon will still lead Tajikistan, and Berdimuhamedow will still lead Turkmenistan. This isn't an official prediction, but if one does leave office for whatever reason it will be Rahmon)
I think that's all I've got.
Feel free to add your own predictions in the comments, or tell me how wrong I will be. I can grade your predictions too at the end of the year! Just remember I only like predictions that can be verified as true and false in some objective way (so don't say the economy will be "better" or "worse", give me some numerical way to evaluate whether the prediction is right or wrong in a year)
