I think tomorrow is the official anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but I've been reading "it's been a year since" articles for the past week or so. So here is mine:
I think people should recognize that Russia has already lost the war in Ukraine. It lost a while ago, as soon as it was clear that the Ukrainians were willing to fight back, and before any Western aid reached them. That doesn't mean that Ukraine has already won the war, whether Ukraine wins or loses is still up in the air. But that doesn't mean that Russia won.
In a lot of wars both sides lose. The U.S. lost the war in Iraq, but that didn't mean that Iraq won. Saddam Hussein was overthrown and his regime was completely replaced. So his side lost. But the U.S. also lost, just because the Iraqi people wouldn't stop fighting, even after the formal regime was gone.
That could be what happens in Ukraine. If Russia somehow manages to pull off a miracle reversal of its fortunes on the battlefield. If its military roars out of their defensive positions in Southern Ukraine and somehow takes over the whole country (like they tried to do a year ago), the Ukrainian people would keep fighting and the country is awash in weapons. So even under the best case scenario for Russia, it still would lose, it just would be a U.S.-in-Iraq-style loss, not Russian retreat-style loss or a bloody endless stalemate style loss, both of which are the more likely scenarios at this point.
I think people should talk openly about Russia's loss, in the past tense because it already happened. Because once we are in a lost war territory, the least-bad option is an earlier end. The only way this ends soon is if Russia leaves. Unfortunately, there aren't many plausible scenarios where Russia leaves soon (even a Ukrainian victory will take time). But, in theory at least, if a loss is widely acknowledged, widely enough to seep in to Russia so the Russian people can appreciate what a horrible and disastrous thing their leader has done. Maybe there can be internal pressures to stop this madness.
